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The National Bank of Poland held its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% at its meeting on April 2, 2025, as widely anticipated, prolonging an interest rate pause since October 2023. The Lombard and deposit rates also remained unchanged at 6.25% and 5.25%. Inflation increased to 4.9% in March from 4.7% in February, well above the central bank's target range of 1.5-3.5%. Poland's central bank expects inflation to be 4.1-5.7% in 2025, 2.0-4.8% in 2026, and 1.1-3.9% in 2027, according to its March projections. This is slightly lower than its November 2024 forecast for 2025 (4.2-6.6%) and 2026 (1.4-4.1%). Meanwhile, the economy accelerated to 2.9% last year with recent data suggesting a return to growth in the fourth quarter following a contraction in the previous three months.

Poland Holds Rate as Expected

The dollar index dipped to 104 on Wednesday as traders awaited details of President Trump’s tariff plans. While specifics remain unclear, reports suggest his administration is considering a broad 20% tariff on most imports rather than targeting specific countries or products. Meanwhile, economic data surprised to the upside, with the ADP report showing private sector employment rose by 155K in March, exceeding forecasts of 105K and February’s 84K. However, the JOLTS report yesterday showed job openings fell to a lower-than-expected 7.57 million, signaling a cooling labor market. Investors are now focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

DXY Falls Ahead Tariff Rollout

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell toward 4.1% on Wednesday, its lowest level since October 18, as traders awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans while digesting a stronger-than-expected ADP employment report. Reports indicate that the Trump administration is weighing a broad 20% tariff on most imports, though the exact scale and scope remain uncertain. While the White House has confirmed the tariffs will take effect immediately, it also emphasized that Trump remains open to further negotiations. Meanwhile, ADP data showed U.S. private employers added 155,000 jobs in March, surpassing forecasts of 105,000, with both the service and goods-producing sectors posting solid gains. In separate reports released Tuesday, the ISM PMI indicated that U.S. factory activity contracted in March, while job openings declined more than expected in February. Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on Fed's policy.

US 10-Year Bond Yield Drops to Over 5-Month Low

Stock futures in the US were lower on Wednesday, with contracts on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 losing 1.2% and the Dow Jones falling more than 300 points. Investors remained on edge ahead of President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement. Reports suggested he is considering a universal 20% tariff on most imports, though uncertainty persists regarding the scale and scope of the levies. The White House has stated that the tariffs would take immediate effect but noted that Trump remains open to further negotiations. Meanwhile, the ADP report showed a surprise 155K gain in private sector employment in March, well above forecasts of 105K and 84K in February. Yesterday, the JOLTS report showed available positions falling to a lower-than-expected 7.57 million. On the corporate front, megacap stocks were lower in premarket trading, including Apple (-0.9%), Microsoft (-1.2%), Nvidia (-2%), Amazon (-1.8%), Meta (-1.6%), Alphabet (-1.2%) and Tesla (-2.6%).

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