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Indian shares were almost flat in morning trade on Monday, hovering around 82,348 following retreats in the previous session, as gains in financial services and healthcare offset losses in the tech sector. Traders were cautious after Moody's lowered the U.S. government credit rating on Friday amid concerns over the budget deficit. Caution also built up after economic data from India's top trading partner, China, showed mixed results, with industrial output growing more than expected while retail sales rose less than estimated. Investors are also anticipating China's interest rate decision on Tuesday, with the market expecting the central bank to cut both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates by 10 bps. Sun Pharmaceutical rose 1.1%, Tata Motors gained 0.8%, Bajaj Finance climbed 0.8%, while Infosys and TCS fell by 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

India Stocks Muted in Early Deals

The foundation for China’s economic recovery “needs to be further consolidated” amid external uncertainties, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The remarks followed April activity data that showed mixed figures. China's industrial production rose 6.1% yoy, beating forecasts of 5.5% but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, the fastest in nearly four years. Meanwhile, retail sales grew less than expected, reflecting weak domestic consumption and sluggish income growth. Simultaneously, the country's urban unemployment rate edged down to a four-month low of 5.1% from 5,2% in March. Fixed-asset investment for January–April, including property and infrastructure, rose 4.0%, below the 4.2% forecast. Real estate remained a drag, with investment down 10.3% year-to-date. In early May, Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back most tariffs for 90 days, allowing further talks toward a longer-term deal.

China Economic Recovery Remains Fragile:NBS

Malaysian palm oil futures rose around 1% to above MYR 3,850 per tonne, pausing a two-day losing streak amid signs of rising exports. Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for May 1–15 were estimated to have grown by 6.6% to 14.2%, according to cargo surveyors. A wide price gap between palm oil and soybean oil also likely encouraged bargain buying. In India, the top buyer, palm oil imports—which have been below average since December—could recover from May.
However, gains were capped by concerns that demand from China, a key consumer, may stay weak. Chinese buyers reportedly are still restocking to meet basic needs, without a notable rise in import volumes. Meanwhile, in top producer Indonesia, an industry group urged the government to delay a planned hike in the palm oil export levy, warning it could hurt competitiveness amid global trade uncertainty, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

Palm Oil Snaps Two-Session of Losses

China’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 1.68% on Monday, though it remained in a sideways movement near three-month lows, as investors assessed a batch of mixed economic data. April’s retail sales growth slowed and missed expectations, reinforcing persistent concerns over fragile consumer demand. However, industrial output beat forecasts but cooled from March’s pace, and the unemployment rate edged down, offering a modest sign of labor market stability. In response to the latest figures, the National Bureau of Statistics said the economy continues to grow steadily despite mounting pressures, maintaining an overall upward trend. Meanwhile, market caution lingered as China described recent trade talks with the US as “good” but gave little detail on future steps, while Trump hinted at a possible call with President Xi. Investors now await upcoming PBOC decisions on key lending rates, including the one-year and five-year loan prime rates.

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