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Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.33% as strong domestic job figures dampened hopes for an early interest rate cut. Unemployment rate in Australia fell to an eight-month low of 3.9% in November, compared to forecasts of 4.2%. The economy also added 35,600 jobs, surpassing economists' expectations of 25,000, reinforcing the labor market's resilience this year. Market sentiment shifted sharply following the data, with the implied probability of a February rate cut falling to around 50%, down from 68% prior to the release. Earlier in the week, expectations for earlier rate cuts had strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged but indicated that it is gaining confidence inflation is moving sustainably toward its target.

Australia 10-Year Bond Yield Climbs on Upbeat Jobs Data

Gold eased toward $2,700 per ounce on Wednesday, taking a breather after a three-day rally as investors continued digesting the latest US inflation data. November’s report showed headline inflation rising as expected, while core inflation remained unchanged. This prompted traders to increase bets on another Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with fed funds futures indicating a 98% likelihood of a 25 bps cut. This move typically benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, concerns lingered about persistent inflation in the coming year, as other key underlying inflation measures stayed elevated. Gold also found support from additional easing measures by major central banks, including the BoC, with the ECB and SNB expected to continue their easing cycles. Meanwhile, the PBoC resumed gold purchases after a six-month break and pledged a more accommodative monetary policy next year.

Gold Retreats After 3-Day Rally

The South Korean won tumbled past 1,430 per dollar, moving back to its lowest level in over two years, as the Bank of Korea is expected to deliver a back-to-back rate cut in January. Investors anticipate the central bank to cut its interest rate by 25bps in January, with three more reductions expected in 2025, potentially bringing the rate down to 2% amid weakening economic sentiment driven by ongoing political turmoil. The government is also expected to propose a supplementary budget to support economic growth next year. Meanwhile, traders remain focused on political instability, as President Yoon Suk Yeol has refused to step down despite parliament’s impeachment push. Externally, the won remains under pressure from the dollar’s ongoing strength, supported by rising US Treasury yields, despite rate cut expectations bets inflation data that came in line with expectations.

South Korean Won Tumbles

The Japanese yen remained around 152.3 per dollar on Thursday, after a three-day decline, as uncertainty about the timing of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan continued to weigh on the currency. Market expectations for a December rate hike were scaled back following reports that the BOJ sees "little cost" in waiting before making a move. Some BOJ officials have left the door open for a rate increase next week, depending on incoming data and market developments. Meanwhile, there are indications that some members of the central bank view the risk of a weak yen driving up inflation as less concerning. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s Japanese business sentiment figures for further insight into the country's economic outlook. Externally, the yen faced additional pressure from a strong US dollar, despite recent US inflation data reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

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