ニュージーランドビジネスNZPMI

アメリカ6年OATオークション

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Copper futures failed to maintain its momentum and dropped to below $4.2 per pound on Thursday after touching an one-month high of $4.25 earlier in the session amid uncertain demand in the medium-term. The drop tracked a broad pullback in industrial metals after higher factory gate prices aligned with concerns of a lower magnitude of Fed rate cuts next year. In turn, markets continued to assess Chinese industrial demand next year and selling prices for exporters. Beijing is willing to devalue the yuan in response to tariff threats by the US and pledges of looser monetary policy to spur economic growth, cheapening exports of refined copper for the world’s top exporter. In turn, base metals were also pressured by lingering skepticism about whether Beijing will follow through with this week’s signal of large-scale fiscal stimulus next year.

Copper Pulls Back from 1-Month High

Manufacturing production in Uruguay rose by 7.5% year-on-year in October 2024, a slowdown from the sharpest expansion since May 2022 of 9.9% in the previous month. The main growth drivers were oil refining, with an impressive 6,039.1% increase due to ANCAP’s refinery maintenance in September 2023, followed by paper and paper products (6%) and pharmaceutical products (8%). The division with the largest negative impact was repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-24.5%), followed by wood production and wood products (-12.3%) and rubber and plastic products (-5.5%). Meanwhile, the index of hours worked (IHT) increased by 0.1%, and the index of employed personnel (IPO) rose by 0.3%.

Uruguay Manufacturing Output Slows in October

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rebounded from earlier losses and rose to the 4.3% mark on Thursday, its highest in over two weeks, as markets digested the latest economic data while continuing to assess the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve next year. Factory gate prices in the US rose more than expected in November, to maintain the market’s lingering concern that inflation may remain stubbornly above the Fed’s target through next year. In turn, the view of a robust labor market was momentarily challenged by an unexpected surge in initial unemployment claims during the first week of December. Rate traders still show a consensus over a 25bps by the Fed next week, but uncertainty on the room for more than 100bps of rate cuts by the central bank next year remains.

US 10-Year Yield Rebounds to 3-Week High

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage eased to 6.6% as of December 12th, 2024, marking a third consecutive weekly decline to the lowest level since mid-October, as growing market consensus anticipates a rate cut this month. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased for the third consecutive week. The combination of mortgage rate declines, firm consumer income growth and a bullish stock market have increased homebuyer demand in recent weeks. While the outlook for the housing market is improving, the improvement is limited given that homebuyers continue to face stiff affordability headwinds,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.

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