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The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.1% to about 26,560 on Wednesday, as robust gains in financials and technology outweighed headwinds in energy. Brookfield Corporation spearheaded the rally in financials with a 3% advance, while Constellation Software added 1.8%, underpinning the broader tech rebound. At the G7, Prime Minister Carney’s drive for a new North American economic and security pact—coupled with Canada’s pledge of additional aid to Ukraine—reinforced the case for trade diversification and fiscal support boosting export-oriented sectors. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged and trim its projected cuts amid mounting trade tensions and Middle East risks added a layer of policy caution, setting a steady backdrop for equities.

TSX Posts Marginal Gains on Wendesday

Net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term US securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $14.2 billion. This included $3.1 billion in net inflows from private foreign investors, offset by $17.3 billion in outflows from foreign official institutions. Foreign residents sold a net $50.6 billion in long-term US securities, with $20.5 billion in sales by private investors and $30.1 billion by official institutions. Meanwhile, US residents reduced their holdings of long-term foreign securities by $42.8 billion. After accounting for adjustments such as estimated foreign portfolio acquisitions via stock swaps, the net foreign sales of long-term securities totaled $7.8 billion.

US Capital Flow Falls in April

Stocks seesawed on Wednesday as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 finished slightly lower, the Dow lost 44 points while, the Nasdaq added 0.1%. Powell emphasized the Fed’s wait-and-see stance, citing uncertainty around the inflationary effects of President Trump’s tariffs and the risk of stagflation, as officials projected two rate cuts in 2025 but downgraded growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations. Markets were further rattled by heightened tensions in the Middle East, with the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict raising fears of broader US involvement and pushing oil prices slightly higher. Trump confirmed that Iran had expressed interest in negotiations but left open the possibility of military action, keeping investors on edge. Visa, Mastercard, and Paypal sank over 4% each after the Congress passed its stablecoins act.

US Stocks Little Changed After Fed Decisions

The Mexican peso traded around 19.0 per USD, just shy of its ten-month trough at 18.886 per dollar as dollar softness after the Federal Reserve’s hold and weak US macro data clashes with headwinds from anticipated Banxico easing, and renewed geopolitical risk. The dollar eased slightly after the Fed left rates unchanged and scaled back its dot-plot cut projections amid rising trade and Middle East uncertainties, factors that typically buoy emerging-market currencies like the peso. However, market pricing now centers on a fourth consecutive 50?bp cut by the Bank of Mexico on June?26th—narrowing Mexico–US yield differentials and dulling the peso’s carry appeal. Meanwhile, oil has climbed to near yealr highs on intensifying Israel–Iran tensions, boosting Mexico’s oil revenues but stoking inflation risks that may constrain Banxico’s easing scope and drive safe-haven flows back into US assets.

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