Global markets will remain reactive to trade policy from the United States and reactionary measures from China, the EU, Japan, and key trading partners in the ASEAN bloc. Uncertainty on the path of tariffs by the US amid threats of escalation against pledges to strike trade deals continue to drive volatility across all asset classes. Meanwhile, the earnings season for global stocks continues with Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Merck, and P&G to headline US events. SAP, BNP Paribas, AON, and Sanofi are awaited in Europe. On the economic calendar, flash PMI readings are due to unveil the initial impact of tariff threats across major economies with results awaited by the US, Eurozone, Japan, India, and Australia. Durable goods orders and existing home sales will also be eyed in the US, and key confidence gauges are awaited in Germany, France, and the UK, followed by retail sales from the latter. On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is set to hold loan prime rates in China.

Week Ahead - Apr 21st

Steel rebar futures in China fell to CNY 3,020 per tonne in April, the lowest in seven months, amid strong supply and an uncertain demand outlook. The trade war between China and the US significantly hampered expectations on manufacturing demand from China, hurting its growth outlook and increasing the risk that the country's property crisis may be far from its bottom. Concerns that property prices may continue to fall due to weak consumer demand maintained pressure on the balance sheet of debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and removing a large source of demand for global rebar. Lower demand and increasing trade protectionism had previously driven Beijing to signal capacity cuts in the steel sector, but the latest data showed that mills continued to churn out more steel. Crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March.

Steel Declines to 7-Month Low

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China sank by 10.8% from the previous year to about $36.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The result followed the 27.1% slump in 2024, which was the sharpest decline in foreign direct investment on record with data going back to 2008. The decline continued to reflect weaker foreign confidence into largest projects in the Chinese economy, pressured by risks of a deflationary spiral and the view that the government delayed in its stimulus response, recently magnified by the threat of tariffs from the United States governemnt. Additionally, opaque balance sheets for manufacturers and service providers held the unease of foreign investors. Still, signs of economic support from the government and hints that the CCP may relax its tight control on the tech sector raised sentiment for portfolio investments in China at the turn of the year, potentially translating into higher direct investments later in the year.

China FDI Sinks 10.8% in Q1

Italy posted a trade surplus of €4.466 billion in February of 2025, narrowing from the €6.000 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year amid a jump in annual import turnover. Imports rose by 4.1% annually to €49.325 billion, lifted by a 39.6% surge in foreign purchases of natural gas, amid some traction in Italian power demand while uncertain supply due to the halt of flows from Ukraine at the turn of the year raised prices. Foreign purchases also rose for food and beverages (8.2%), pharmaceutical articles (21%), and transportation goods. In turn, exports grew by a softer 0.8% annually to €53.791 billion, as increased sales of pharmaceutical goods (31.2%), transportation goods excluding autos (9.6%) and sporting goods (6.5%) offset declines in cars (-11.5%), machinery (-11.5%), and coke and refined petroleum chemicals (-25.8%).

話題の銘柄と投資戦略を提供します

タイムリーなニュースや経済イベント＆アイデアで、賢く投資を。

最新ニュース

Week Ahead - Apr 21st

Steel Declines to 7-Month Low

China FDI Sinks 10.8% in Q1

Italy Trade Surplus Narrows