ドイツGfk 消費者信頼感

ユーロ圏ECB消費者インフレ期待

イタリア企業信頼感

イタリア消費者信頼感

The Indonesian rupiah strengthened a bit to around 16,610 per dollar on Tuesday after falling to as low as 16,630 the previous day, supported by a weaker greenback as optimism over a potential US-China trade deal reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with investors watching for clues on whether another reduction could come in December. Domestically, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly paused its aggressive rate-cutting cycle last week to focus on improving policy transmission. Although the central bank has lowered its benchmark rate by 150 basis points since September last year, lending rates have fallen by only 15 basis points, a gap Governor Perry Warjiyo linked to depositors demanding higher returns. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose to a 16-month high of 2.65% in September but remained within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5%–3.5% target range, helping sustain market confidence.

Rupiah Gains Slightly Amid Softer Dollar

Iron ore futures rose toward CNY 790 per ton, hitting a two-week high as China announced new measures to curb steelmaking capacity in key regions to rebalance supply and demand. The move has lifted steel prices and improved profit margins, bolstering demand for iron ore and other raw materials. Beijing recently proposed a stricter capacity swap plan that would prohibit adding new steel capacity in key areas, transferring capacity from non-key to key regions, or reallocating capacity among key zones. The policy comes as China faces sluggish domestic demand due to its prolonged property downturn, which has weighed on steel margins. Investors also tracked trade developments, with China and the US agreeing on a framework for a potential trade deal to be finalized by Presidents Trump and Xi this week covering several key issues.

Iron Ore Climbs to 2-Week High

Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose to around 4.18%, near its highest level in almost two weeks, supported by rising doubts over an imminent near-term RBA rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock downplayed the recent rise in unemployment and stressed the board’s cautious approach, noting that Australia’s labor market remains tight and inflation persistent, suggesting a higher threshold for further monetary easing after three rate cuts earlier this year. Markets now assign roughly a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut to the 3.6% cash rate at the RBA’s November 4 meeting, down from 60% earlier Monday, while a full rate reduction is still expected by February. Investors are now focusing on September’s CPI report and the upcoming Q3 inflation data later this week for additional clues into monetary policy, following August’s reading, which showed the highest inflation since July 2024.

Australia 10-Year Bond Yield Rises

The Straits Times Index rose 31 points, or 0.7%, to 4,472 in early trade on Tuesday, revisiting a record high and extending gains for a sixth straight session. A rally on Wall Street overnight lifted investor sentiment, amid optimism that the U.S. and China could sign a trade deal Thursday after negotiators reached a framework involving lower U.S. tariffs and Chinese concessions on rare earth exports. Bets for further U.S. Fed rate cuts later this week and again in December also supported risk appetite. Locally, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy stance unchanged in mid-October, noting that the economy remains resilient despite global trade headwinds. Still, gains were capped by caution ahead of official PMI data in China, Singapore's top trading partner, later this week. Producer manufacturing, process industries, and commercial services led the gains, with notable rises from DBS Group (1.3%), Keppel Ltd. (1.1%), First Resources (3.7%), and Singapore Airlines (0.9%).

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