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China’s 10-year government bond yield hovered near a two-month low of around 1.76% on Wednesday, as investors were drawn by growing expectations of monetary policy easing by the People’s Bank of China. Markets expect the central bank to cut both the benchmark interest rate and the reserve requirement ratio before year-end to support the economy amid risks from US-China trade tensions. In recent developments, President Donald Trump voiced optimism about a favorable deal with Beijing but acknowledged that a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping may not happen. Similarly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Malaysia this weekend to discuss key issues, including China’s rare earth export restrictions and Trump’s tariff threats. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Chinese Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum for potential policy signals.

China 10Y Yield Hovers Near 2-Month Low

The Nikkei 225 Index slipped 0.02% to close at 49,308 on Wednesday after falling as much as 1.42% earlier in the session, while the broader Topix Index gained 0.52% to 3,266 amid reports that the new prime minister is preparing a large-scale stimulus plan that could surpass last year’s 13.9 trillion yen package. Sanae Takaichi, confirmed as prime minister on Tuesday, is expected to pursue expansionary fiscal measures and back accommodative monetary policy. Earlier weakness in Japanese equities reflected profit-taking after a strong rally to record highs. Among individual movers, SoftBank Group (-4.9%), Advantest (-1.7%), and JX Advanced (-4.3%) declined, while Fujikura (1.6%), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (1.9%), and IHI Corp (6.4%) posted solid gains.

Japanese Shares Trim Losses on Stimulus Optimism

Sterling extended losses toward $1.33, its weakest level in a week, after inflation data came in below market expectations, fueling speculation of early interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Headline inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, defying forecasts of a rise to 4%, as food price growth continued to ease. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate edged down to 3.5% from 3.6%, also undershooting expectations of 3.7%. The softer readings offered some relief for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who recently signaled plans to unveil “a range of policies” in her November 26 budget aimed at “bearing down on some of the costs that people face.” Government borrowing, however, totaled £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year—£7.2 billion above the OBR’s forecast. Looking ahead, markets now anticipate that the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates early next year, as inflation is expected to continue moderating and labor market data point to further signs of cooling.

Pound Weakens as Soft UK Inflation Data Boost Rate Cut Bets

The Indonesian rupiah weakened past 16,600 per dollar on Wednesday, retreating after several sessions of relative stability. The decline came amid expectations that Bank Indonesia will cut its benchmark interest rate for the fourth consecutive meeting later in the day, likely bringing it down to a three-year low of 4.5% as policymakers prioritize supporting economic growth. Adding pressure, the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a 14-month low in September, underscoring continued intervention efforts to stabilize the currency following political unrest and mass protests. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the month dropped to its weakest level since April 2022, reflecting growing concerns over eroding purchasing power and softer domestic demand. Globally, the U.S. dollar index hovered near 98.9, staying firm as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

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