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The dollar index hovered above 97 on Thursday after rebounding sharply in the prior session, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against market expectations for two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, framing the move as “risk management” amid labor market weakness, while stressing there is no need to rush easing. Notably, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, backing a larger 50 bps cut, resulting in fewer splits than anticipated. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada also trimmed rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to keep policy unchanged this week.

Dollar Holds Firm as Fed Outlook Weighed

Employment in Australia dropped by 5,400 to 14.62 million in August 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 26,500 gain in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 22,000 increase. It was the first decline since May, driven by a 40,900 drop in full-time jobs to 10.08 million, after a sharply revised 63,600 rise the month before. In contrast, part-time employment grew by 35,500 to 4.55 million, extending a 37,200 gain in July. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 64.0% from 64.1%, while the participation rate edged down to 66.8% from 66.9%. On a yearly basis, total employment still rose by 217,200, or 1.5%.

Australia Employment Unexpectedly Eases

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in August 2025, unchanged from the previous month and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed people fell by 900, bringing the total to 647,400. Meanwhile, employment unexpectedly declined by 5,400 to 14.63 million, missing forecasts of a 22,000 increase. Full-time employment decreased by 40,900 to 10.08 million, while part-time employment increased by 35,500 to 4.55 million.

Australia Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 4.2%

Brent crude oil futures fell below $67 per barrel on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as traders continued to assess US stockpile data and a Federal Reserve rate cut. EIA data showed that crude inventories dropped by 9.3 million barrels last week, driven by a sharp rise in exports. However, a surge in the adjustment factor and distillate stocks climbing to their highest since January gave the report a bearish tone. Meanwhile, the US central bank cut interest rates by a quarter point as expected and signaled further reductions to support a softening job market. Yet, despite the dovish pivot, markets are watchful, as this could also indicate growing economic risks for a key oil consumer. Investors also continued to monitor concerns over Russian oil supply, as Ukraine recently ramped up strikes on energy facilities. Reports indicated that Transneft had warned producers of potential output cuts, though the company later dismissed the claims as misinformation.

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