ニュージーランドグローバル酪農貿易価格指数

カナダ住宅着工件数

カナダCPIトリミング-平均前年比

カナダコアインフレ率前月比

German 10-year Bund yields edged back up to 2.7% on Tuesday, as investors digested stronger-than-expected sentiment data while positioning for a busy week of central bank action. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed to 37.3 in September, up from 34.7 in August and well above market expectations of 26.3. The rebound points to stabilizing expectations, with financial market experts remaining cautiously optimistic despite persistent risks tied to US trade policy. The survey also signaled modest improvement in Eurozone expectations. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday, as policymakers face the challenge of balancing a cooling labor market against inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs. In Europe, the ECB last week kept rates unchanged for a second straight meeting, signaling that its rate-cutting cycle may have come to an end.

Bund Yields Rise as Investor Sentiment Improves

The Swiss franc firmed to around 0.79 per USD, its highest level since July 1st, amid a weaker dollar as speculation about a “dovish cut” by the Fed increases. Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25-bps rate cut, and expect the central bank to continue lowering rates. Persistent political and fiscal concerns in France and Japan, along with geopolitical tensions, also underpin safe-haven demand for the franc. In the Swiss economy, the latest figures confirmed a persistent disinflationary trend. Producer and import prices declined again in August, down 1.8% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. Meanwhile, Swiss CPI rose 0.2% in August as expected, marking the third straight month of positive inflation and remaining within the SNB’s 0%-2% target range. Despite subdued inflation, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently noted the risks of negative rates for savers and pension funds, signaling the bank’s reluctance to cut below zero.

Swiss Franc at Over 1-Month High

The euro climbed above $1.18 for the first time since July, hovering at its strongest level since September 2021, supported by stronger-than-expected investor sentiment in both the Eurozone and Germany, alongside broad dollar weakness as the US Fed prepares to resume interest rate cuts this week. Markets broadly expect the Fed to lower rates by at least 25 bps as policymakers weigh a cooling labor market against lingering inflationary pressures from tariffs. In contrast, European officials continue to emphasize caution on inflation. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel urged policymakers to “keep a steady hand,” warning that risks ranging from tariffs and services inflation to food prices and fiscal policy remain significant. Slovak central-bank Governor Peter Kazimir echoed that view, cautioning that ignoring these risks “would be a mistake.” The ECB last week kept borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, signaling that its rate-cutting cycle may have ended.

Euro Hits Four-Year High

Lithium carbonate prices dropped to CNY 72,800 per tonne from the one-year high of CNY 87,100 on August 19th amid signs that limits to supply would be softer than expected earlier. Reports indicated that mining activity in CATL's Jiangxi mine is due to restart production at a sooner date that markets expected after the major company. The reopening reports countered the surge in lithium prices after CATL was unable to extend mining permits in the hub, which is responsible for around 3% of global supply. Besides the direct increase in supply from operations in Jiangxi, the event limited the magnitude of supply cuts that the Chinese government was willing to pass to counter deflationary pressures in its fresh capacity-cutting overhaul. In the meantime, Chinese electric vehicle producers continued to record strong sales volumes as companies resisted discounted prices to compete for market share, underpinning demand from battery manufacturers.

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