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Italy’s 10-year BTP yield climbed to 3.4%, its highest level since October 14, as investors digested hawkish signals from both the Eurozone and US central banks. The ECB held interest rates steady for a third consecutive meeting, noting that the inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged, while the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, with Chair Jerome Powell cautioning that further easing in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” Despite higher yields, Italy’s borrowing costs fell at Thursday’s auctions, with the Treasury selling €4.5 billion of a new 10-year BTP maturing in February 2036 at a 3.46% gross yield, the lowest since November 2024. Economic data showed the Italian economy unexpectedly stalled in Q3, weighed down by a contraction in the industrial sector and stagnant services, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, above expectations of 6%.

Italy’s Bond Yield Rises on Hawkish Central Bank Signals

Gold prices rose toward $4,000 per ounce on Thursday, halting a four-day decline as strong central bank demand continued to support the market. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased about 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing an earlier slowdown. Kazakhstan remained the largest buyer, while Brazil purchased gold for the first time in over four years. Limiting further gains, US and China agreed to a trade truce, under which President Trump announced a one-year agreement on rare earths and critical minerals and halved fentanyl tariffs to 10%, with Beijing agreeing to curb fentanyl production and resume purchases of US soybeans. Meanwhile, Chair Powell cautioned that another cut in December is not guaranteed, kept the dollar strong. Meanwhile, the ECB left rates unchanged but signaled it would not begin easing until early 2026, adding a mildly hawkish contrast to the Fed and limiting bullion’s upside.

Gold Extends Rebound

Copper futures in the US fell to $5.09 per pound from the three-month high of $5.17 touched October 29th, as a stronger dollar and the uncertain demand outlook momentarily outweighed mounting concerns of tight supply. The dollar gained strength and the outlook for credit-sensitive manufacturers eased after Fed Chairman Powell pushed back against the signal of a rate cut in December, pressuring base metals. In the meantime, US and Chinese Presidents Trump and Xi eased the trade barriers between both countries, as expected. Still, US futures remained sharply higher on the month and near record highs at the LME due to a series of negative supply shocks., with major miners such as Glencore and Anglo American reporting lower output in the first nine months of the year. Consumers were also evaluating alternatives after a fatal mudslide at a Freeport-McMoRan mine in Indonesia halted operations responsible for over 3% of global supply.

Copper Declines from 3-Month High

France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed above 3.4%, its highest since October 13, as investors reacted to hawkish signals from the ECB and Fed and strong Q3 GDP data. The ECB kept rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, noting that the inflation outlook remains broadly stable. On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that further easing in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” French GDP grew 0.5% in Q3, the fastest pace in over two years and above the expected 0.2%, driven by rising exports and solid domestic demand. Politically, lawmakers approved a budget amendment to double the digital services tax for major tech firms, though the measure still requires final approval. Opposition parties have threatened no-confidence votes against Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu unless taxes on large corporations and the wealthiest individuals are significantly increased.

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