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Turkey’s BIST 100 index rebounded above the 10,900 level in mid-September after a court postponed until October 24 a ruling on the leadership of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party. The case, centered on alleged irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress and the removal of its elected leadership, had initially been scheduled for September 15. The delay provided some momentary relief to investors concerned about political instability, with banking stocks—among the hardest hit—leading the recovery. Separately, hundreds of CHP members, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s chief political rival, remain in detention pending trial in a wide-ranging investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. On the monetary front, the Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 250 bps in September to 40.5%, slightly below expectations of 41%. Annual inflation eased to 32.95% in August while GDP expanded 4.8% yoy in Q2 2025.

Turkish Stocks Gain After Court Postpones Opposition Ruling

The dollar index slipped to 97.3 on Monday, its weakest level since late July, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut to the fed funds rate on Wednesday, while leaving a small chance of a larger 50 bps move, after recent data pointed to a sharp cooling in the labor market. Investors will also focus on the Fed’s updated macroeconomic projections—particularly the interest rate path—with expectations that easing will continue through year-end. The vote split will be closely watched, as the FOMC has not been divided three ways since 2019. In addition, traders are monitoring whether Stephen Miran will be confirmed as a Fed governor in time for the meeting. Beyond the US, the Bank of Canada is also expected to deliver rate cuts this week, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are likely to keep policy unchanged. The greenback traded mostly lower against the pound, the euro, and the yen.

Dollar Hits July Lows as Fed Meeting Looms

Canada’s wholesale sales climbed 1.2% month-on-month to C$86.0 billion in July 2025, the fastest gain since January, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.0% increase in June but slightly below market expectations of 1.3%. Four of the seven subsectors posted gains, accounting for roughly three-quarters of total wholesale trade. The largest increases came from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (+5.1% to C$15.4 billion), driven by a 5.9% increase in motor vehicle sales, and the building materials and supplies subsector (+2.7% to C$12.1 billion), with all industry groups in the sector contributing, led by a 2.7% increase in lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies. These gains were partially offset by a decline in the miscellaneous subsector (-1.5% to C$10.7 billion). Regionally, wholesale sales rose in seven provinces, led by Ontario (+1.5% to C$44.7 billion) and Alberta (+2.6% to C$9.5 billion).

Canada Wholesale Sales Growth Hits Six-Month High

Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a key GDP proxy, fell 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, the third straight decline after a 0.1% drop in June and worse than market expectations of -0.2%. Agriculture and livestock output fell 0.8%, industry contracted 1.1%, and services edged down 0.2%. The IBC-Br taxes index declined 0.7%, while the measure excluding agriculture dropped 0.4%. Compared to July 2024, the index rose 1.1%.

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