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The yield on the Indian 10-year G-Sec fell to 6.3% in July, the lowest in one month on soft inflation and the Indian government's prudent fiscal position. Uninterrupted flows of fuel tankers into the Indian Ocean from the Persian Gulf drove oil benchmarks to erase its surge, easing the refining costs for domestic firms. Consequently, investors continued to focus on the low inflationary backdrop in India and the dovish response by the RBI. The headline inflation rate fell by more than expected to 2.82% in May, the lowest in over six years, and well under the RBI's midpoint target of 4%. The RBI delivered a sharper-than-expected rate cut in its June meeting to lower benchmark borrowing costs to 5.5%. In the meantime, new data showed that India's budget deficit for the current financial year narrowed from the previous month in May, as a surge in government revenues outpaced higher outlays.

Indian 10-Year Yield Falls Further

Retail sales in Brazil declined by 0.2% from the previous month in May of 2025, extending the revised 0.3% drop from April. It marked the first back-to-back decline in retail turnover since the start of the year, reflecting fresh softness in domestic consumption as elevated interest rates weigh against increased government handouts that supported last year's private expenditure. Turnover was lower for fuels and lubricants (-1.7% vs -1.6% in April), books and stationery (-2% vs 1.4%), and other articles for personal use (-2.1% vs 0.7%). In turn, sales were higher for supermarkets and food retailers (0.4% vs -0.3%), furniture and electronics (2% vs 0.3%), and pharmaceutical goods (1.7% vs 0.3%). From the previous year, retail sales were 2.1% higher, slowing from the 5.3% increase in the previous month.

Brazil Retail Sales Contract for 2nd Month

US futures erased most early losses on Tuesday, as investors digested the latest trade developments. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures hovered near the flatline. Markets responded to news that President Trump had announced revised tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to reach trade agreements with the US. Reports also indicated that the US has proposed a deal to the EU that would retain a 10% baseline tariff, with exceptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits. Investors found some relief in the extended timeline for negotiations, as the new tariffs are not set to take effect until August 1st, allowing more time to reach agreements. On the corporate front, Tesla shares rose nearly 1% in premarket trading, rebounding after a 6.8% decline on Monday. Other megacap tech stocks were mostly higher ahead of the opening bell, including Nvidia (+0.8%), Amazon (+0.3%), Meta (+0.6%), Broadcom (+0.7%), and Alphabet (+0.5%).

US Futures Point to a Rebound

The current account surplus in Ireland narrowed to EUR 5.8 billion in Q1 2025, downwardly revised from a preliminary release of EUR 6.6 billion and sharply lower than the EUR 17.9 billion recorded a year earlier, marking the smallest surplus since Q4 2023. The services balance swung to a EUR 0.4 billion deficit from a EUR 14.9 billion surplus in the same quarter last year, while the primary income deficit widened significantly to EUR 67.0 billion from EUR 34.9 billion. In contrast, the goods surplus nearly doubled to EUR 74.2 billion from EUR 39.1 billion. The secondary income deficit narrowed slightly to EUR 1.0 billion from EUR 1.2 billion.

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