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Turkey’s BIST 100 index fell to around the 10,000 level in October 2025, its lowest since early July, before staging a modest rebound. The benchmark remains well below its record high set in August, as investors continue to weigh political uncertainty and rising inflation pressures. A key focus is the Turkish court ruling on the leadership dispute within the main opposition CHP, scheduled for October 24th. Adding to political tensions, prosecutors have sought authorization from the Interior Ministry to investigate Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, another potential challenger to President Erdogan. On the economic front, annual inflation accelerated for the first time in fifteen months, reaching 33.29% in September, though the central bank is still widely expected to deliver a 100 basis-point reduction this week. In corporate news, defense firm Aselsan has soared nearly 200% year to date, reflecting strong performance in the global defense sector, buoyed by rising military budgets worldwide.

BIST 100 Below August-Highs

Copper futures were at $4.95 per pound on Monday, holding the sharp pullback since testing the over-two-month high of $5.12 last week as markets continued to assess downside risks to demand in the near-term. Annual GDP growth in China, the world's top copper consumer and host of the largest manufacturing sector, slowed in the third quarter despite optimistic recent figures for industrial production, which grew 6.5% in September instead of the expected 5%. The data refrained from catalyzing a rebound on industrial demand as trade conflicts between the US and China threatened global demand for base metals. Consequently, the Yunnan Copper Premium, which measures demand for physical copper deliveries in China, slumped to $36 per tonne, compared to nearly $100 in April. Still, supply pressures prevented a pullback. A series of mining disruptions, headlined by the halt of activity in Indonesia's Grasberg mine, reignited deficit concerns for major consumers.

Copper Holds Pullback

US stock futures opened the week higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts both up 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures added roughly 65 points. Traders are preparing for a busy week of earnings, including Tesla, and the release of the delayed CPI report scheduled for Friday. Concerns over regional banks, which had triggered a sell-off last week, eased following strong results from several regional lenders. Investor sentiment also improved after President Trump sought to de-escalate trade tensions with China, ahead of a new round of US–China trade talks in Malaysia. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that Trump has exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs. On the downside, the government shutdown entered its fourth week, with no clear resolution in sight. Megacaps were mostly higher in premarket trading, including Apple (1.5%), Amazon (0.2%), Meta (0.6%), Alphabet (0.5%), Broadcom (0.9%), Tesla (1%) while Microsoft traded around the flatline and Nvidia was down 0.2%.

US Futures Point to Gains at the Open

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield eased further to below 9%, a new low since late January, supported by higher real returns amidst expectations of US rate cuts. The country, a top global gold producer, also benefits from the metal’s ongoing strength, further boosting its investment appeal. Real yields remain among the highest in emerging markets, supported by credible monetary policy, a more stable currency than in the past, and structural improvements such as more reliable electricity and increased infrastructure investment. Local bonds have also benefited from the Reserve Bank’s implicit shift of its inflation target toward the lower end of the 3%–6% range. At the same time, the South African government is making progress on fiscal consolidation, on track to stabilize its debt burden and achieve a larger primary surplus this year.

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