カナダCFIBビジネスバロメーター

イギリス英中銀金利政策決定

イギリスMPC会議議事録

イギリスBOE MPC 投票削減

Producer prices in Portugal fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August 2025, the sharpest drop since November 2023, following a 3.7% decline in July. The decrease was mainly driven by chemical pulp, paper and cardboard products, and electricity. Prices also fell for intermediate goods (-4.9% vs -3.9%), energy (-9.1% vs -7.5%), and non-durable consumer goods (-4.4% vs -4.3%). Excluding energy, industrial production prices declined by 3.3% (after -2.9%). By contrast, prices rose for investment goods (1.9% vs 1.8%) and durable goods (1.8% vs 1.8%). On a monthly basis, the PPI decreased by 0.6% in August, marking the first decline in three months.

Portugal Producer Deflation Highest Since 2023

Bulgaria’s current account surplus narrowed significantly to €43.1 million in July 2025 from €432.6 million in the corresponding month of the previous year. This was primarily due to a sharp increase in the goods account deficit, which widened to €652.2 million from €120.4 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, the primary income deficit narrowed to €410.3 million from €454.2 million and the secondary income surplus rose to €148.4 million from €92.5 million. Additionally, the services surplus grew to €957.1 million from €914.7 million.

Bulgaria Current Account Surplus Narrows in July

The Swiss franc hovered around 0.79 per USD, its highest level since July 2011, amid a broadly stable dollar following the Fed’s latest decision to cut interest rates and cautious guidance. The 25-basis-point rate cut came as expected, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at two more this year—but just one in 2026—dampening hopes of multiple cuts next year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to announce its next policy decision on September 25, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged at zero. Broader inflation remains comfortably within the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0-2% target range, reducing the urgency for further easing. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently noted the risks of negative rates for savers and pension funds, signaling the bank’s reluctance to cut below zero. Meanwhile, persistent political and fiscal concerns in France and Japan, along with geopolitical tensions, also underpin safe-haven demand for the franc.

Swiss Franc Remains Firm

The Central Bank of Taiwan maintained its key discount rate at 2% in its September 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects a cautious approach amid global uncertainties, including US trade policy, major central bank actions, slowing growth in China, and geopolitical risks. Taiwan’s economy outperformed in H1 2025, supported by strong demand for AI and emerging technologies, robust exports, and expanding private investment. The central bank raised its GDP forecast for 2025 to 4.55%. CPI for January–August 2025 averaged 1.83%, partly due to elevated food prices amid recent weather conditions, while core CPI rose 1.64%. The central bank projects full-year CPI and core CPI growth of 1.75% and 1.67%, respectively, both below 2024 levels of 2.18% and 1.88%. The Bank emphasized that keeping the policy rate steady aims to navigate global economic uncertainties and US trade policy risks, while supporting stable domestic growth and continued moderation in inflation.

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