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The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered near 4.07% on Thursday after rising about 5 basis points in the prior session, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against forecasts for two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note, framing the move as “risk management” in response to labor market softness, while stressing there is no urgency to accelerate easing. Notably, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, favoring a larger 50 bps cut, leading to fewer splits than anticipated.

US 10-Year Yield Steadies as Fed Outlook Mulled

Hong Kong stocks added 44 points or 0.2% to 26,954 on Thursday morning, advancing for the second session and holding near four-year highs. Sentiment improved further after the Fed cut rates by 25bps for the first time in nine months and signaled two more reductions this year, citing labor market risks over inflation. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed, lowering borrowing costs to 4.5%, the lowest since November 2022. Chief Executive Eddie Yue said the move should support property and the wider economy. Tech stocks led the strength after Beijing reportedly ordered firms to halt Nvidia chip purchases to cut reliance on US hardware and foster domestic alternatives. Consumer shares also firmed after Chief Executive John Lee pledged to boost investment, tourism, and innovation in his 2025 policy address. SMIC jumped 5.6% to its highest since 2004, while Baidu surged 11% on AI progress. Other notable movers included China Longyuan Power (5.0%), Pop Mart (3.4%), and China Tower (2.8%).

Hong Kong Shares Rise Slightly After FOMC, HKMA Moves

The Australian dollar traded around $0.665 on Thursday, holding its losses from the previous session, as markets digested a softer-than-expected domestic jobs report. Data showed net employment fell by 5,400 in August against forecasts for a 21,500 gain, driven by a sharp drop of 40,900 full-time positions. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% while the participation rate edged lower to 66.8%, signaling a gradually softening labor market. Despite the weak print, markets imply only a 20% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at the September 30 meeting, with expectations rising to 70% for November, as inflation remains above target and policymakers signal caution. Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut and signaled two more this year but only one in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed a cautious ‘risk management’ approach and no rush to ease further.

Aussie Dollar Holds Decline After Softer Jobs Data

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% to around 3,885 while the Shenzhen Component added 0.5% to 13,280 on Thursday, with mainland benchmarks touching fresh multi-year highs and tracking global gains after the US Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point rate cut as expected. The Fed also signaled two more cuts this year but only one in 2026, countering forecasts for two or three next year. Risk appetite was further lifted by optimism over US-China trade negotiations and a potential TikTok agreement, with President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping set to speak Friday on the terms. Separately, China’s cyberspace regulator reportedly directed firms including Alibaba to halt purchases of Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D, a workstation chip that can be adapted for AI. Tech names led the rally, with Cambricon Technologies (+2.9%), Hygon Information (+6.7%) and Dawning Information (+6%) posting strong gains.

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