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Cotton futures rose above 66 cents per pound, their highest in three weeks, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The softer dollar boosted the competitiveness of US cotton in overseas markets, while a potential rate cut is seen as easing borrowing costs for farmers. Traders are largely betting on a 25-basis-point reduction, with confidence running high ahead of the Fed’s decision. The USDA reported that 52% of the US cotton crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down slightly from 54% the previous week. Meanwhile, the latest WASDE report showed no changes in US cotton consumption, exports, or ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, though declines in global inventories provided a mildly supportive backdrop.

Cotton Prices Climb to 3-Week High

Wheat futures climbed toward $5.35 per bushel on Tuesday, supported by strong US export demand and tightening global supply conditions. The market rebounded from recent lows as competitive US pricing and delays in Black Sea shipments prompted Asian flour millers to boost imports. A weaker dollar further enhanced the competitiveness of US wheat in the global marketplace. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 755,073 metric tons, well above expectations, underscoring solid demand. Additional momentum came from Russia’s decision to nearly triple its wheat export duty starting September 17, further constraining global supplies.

Wheat Futures Rise on Strong US Exports

US stocks pulled back on Tuesday as investors took profits and turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy decision. The S\&P 500 slipped 0.1% after hitting a fresh record earlier in the session, while the Nasdaq hovered near flat and the Dow Jones fell over 100 points. Technology leaders including Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Palantir retreated, while financial and utility stocks also weighed on the broader market. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, marking its first reduction since December, with markets closely watching Chair Powell’s comments for clues on future moves. Meanwhile, upbeat August retail sales data showed resilient consumer spending despite sticky inflation and a softening labor market. Investors also tracked US-China developments, with progress on trade and a new TikTok framework lifting sentiment and boosting shares of Oracle.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Edge Lower

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield fell below 13.7% in September, touching two-month lows as cooling activity and softer inflation prints compounded with declines in global long yields pushed down expected future real rates. Brazil’s IBC-Br activity index fell 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, the third consecutive decline and weaker than the -0.2% consensus, signalling growth is losing momentum. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields slid to roughly five-month lows as markets priced a 25bp Fed move this week and further easing later in the year, transmitting lower global long-rate benchmarks to Brazil. That downward pressure on long yields comes despite an unusually tight labour market, unemployment was about 5.6% in the July moving quarter, which tempers how quickly the central bank might pivot to cuts and supports a cautious policy stance. The central bank is widely expected to hold policy at its current restrictive level at the upcoming meeting.

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