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The dollar index fell toward 99 on Tuesday as investors digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighting a weakening labor market, which reinforced expectations for an imminent rate cut. The ongoing federal government shutdown has limited the release of key economic data, keeping near-term growth signals unclear and increasing focus on policy developments. Meanwhile, markets continued to track US–China trade tensions ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting, with China recently sanctioning US-linked units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, adding uncertainty to the outlook for global commerce.

DXY Slides After Fed Chair Powell Speech

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell past 4.04% on Tuesday, approaching April-lows after Fed Chair Powell’s remarks highlighting a weakening labor market, which reinforced expectations for an imminent rate cut and eased discount-rate pressures on bonds. Investors also weighed ongoing US–China trade frictions, including China’s sanctions on US-linked units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean and the prospect of a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, which could provide an off-ramp to escalating tensions. Meanwhile, the ongoing federal government shutdown has limited the release of key economic data, reducing immediate visibility on domestic growth and keeping yields subdued as markets reassess the near-term policy outlook.

US 10-Year Yield Extends Downturn

Speaking at the NABE meeting in Philadelphia, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that economic activity is slightly stronger than expected but warned of rising risks to employment. "While the unemployment rate remained low through August, payroll gains have slowed sharply, likely in part due to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and labor force participation. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen," The Chair also indicated that the Federal Reserve could conclude its balance-sheet runoff in the coming months, noting that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening. He cautioned that delaying action risks amplifying the impact of tariffs and potential job losses, while the recent lack of key data has added uncertainty to the policy outlook.

Powell Warns of Slowing Job Market

US stocks pared early losses on Tuesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 up about 0.3% and the Dow Jones rising over 340 points while the Nasdaq cut losses, as policy signals and earnings strength offset trade-driven volatility. The lift followed Fed Chair Powell’s acknowledgement of weakening labor-market prospects, reinforcing bets on a rate cut later this month. Meanwhile, confirmation that President Trump still plans to meet Xi Jinping, which dulled fears of an immediate trade rupture after China’s recent sanctions on US-linked shipping assets, also drove markets back to risk assets. At the same time, strong bank results anchored the rebound as Citigroup jumped over 4.5% after beating revenue across all five business lines and Wells Fargo rallied nearly 7% after lifting a key profitability metric and outlining a post-regulatory growth target. However, Goldman slipped  about 1.5% despite record Q3 revenue and warned of another round of job cuts to curb costs and seize AI opportunities.

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