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The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.606 on Friday, amid broad US dollar strength following a robust US jobs report that dampened hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July. Trade uncertainty also weighed on sentiment, with a US tariff deadline approaching on July 9. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced that letters specifying tariff rates on imports to the US would begin being sent out on Friday, signaling a shift from earlier pledges to negotiate individual trade deals. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep its cash rate steady at 3.25% next week, although investors still expect one or two additional 25bps cut later this year amid concerns over the economic impact of US tariffs. Despite recent pressure, the Kiwi has edged up 0.2% so far this week, on track for its second consecutive weekly gain.

New Zealand Dollar Holds Decline

The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1% to around 3,464, while the Shenzhen Component slipped 0.5% to 10,482 in mixed trade on Friday, with mainland stocks struggling for clear direction as investors continued to grapple with global trade uncertainties. Investor sentiment remained cautious after US President Donald Trump announced plans to begin issuing letters on trade tariffs, potentially setting new unilateral rates. Meanwhile, the US started lifting export restrictions on key technologies such as chip design software, ethane, and jet engines to China, signaling efforts to de-escalate trade tensions. These measures are part of a broader US-China trade agreement aimed at resuming exchanges in rare earths and advanced technologies. Notable gainers included Foxconn Industrial (+3.1%), Shenzhen Woer (+8.1%), and Wus Printed Circuits (+7.1%). For the week, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes are poised to post gains of over 1%.

China Stocks Wobble as Trade Uncertainty Weighs

The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.

Australian Dollar Holds Near 8-Month High

Qatar’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.0 in June 2025, up from 50.8 in May, signaling the fastest growth in the non-energy private sector since March. The latest reading matches the highest level recorded so far in 2025, although it remains slightly below the long-run survey average of 52.2. Output continued to expand, while employment rose, with the pace of job creation reaching the joint-third highest on record. Employment growth was observed across all sectors, led by manufacturing. The rise in staffing levels was supported by a further increase in outstanding business, the sharpest since last October. Wage growth was also notable, recording the second-highest increase on record, just behind January. On the price front, selling prices declined for the eleventh consecutive month, with the rate of deflation the fastest since last November. Looking ahead, business sentiment moderated and remained below the long-run survey average since 2017.

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