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The Australian dollar rose to around $0.66 on Monday, extending gains from the previous week amid a softer greenback ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision later this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, with only a slim 4% chance of a larger 50 bps move. On the domestic front, Australia’s economic calendar remains relatively light this week. However, investor focus is shifting toward the upcoming employment report and scheduled speeches from RBA officials, which could offer further insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory. Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted encouraging signs of “a little bit more growth” in the private sector, characterizing this as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks reinforced the RBA’s cautious stance and supported market expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting at the end of the month.

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Softer Greenback

The offshore yuan steadied to around 7.12 per dollar on Monday, halting the previous session's losses, as investors monitored US-China talks and digested weaker-than-expected domestic economic data. US and Chinese officials began discussions in Madrid on Sunday aimed at easing tensions over national security and trade, including a looming deadline for Chinese short video app TikTok to divest and Washington’s push for allies to impose tariffs on Beijing over Russian oil. The talks marked the fourth such meeting in four months across European capitals. Meanwhile, fresh Chinese data underscored a fragile outlook, with retail sales up just 3.4% in August, the slowest in eight months, and industrial output growth easing to 5.2%, its weakest in a year. Fixed-asset investment rose only 0.5% in January–August, well below forecasts, while the jobless rate climbed to a six-month high of 5.3%. Markets now turn to this week’s loan prime rate decision, with expectations pointing to no change.

Offshore Yuan Holds Steady

The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to around 3,863 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.9% to 13,040 on Monday, with mainland shares delivering mixed results as investors assessed a batch of economic reports. Data showed that both industrial output and retail sales growth fell short of expectations in August amid soft domestic demand and Beijing’s efforts to curb overcapacity and cut excessive competition. The jobless rate also unexpectedly ticked higher, while new home prices posted their smallest drop in 17 months on the back of government support aimed at easing the prolonged property slump. On the geopolitical front, US and Chinese officials began talks in Madrid on Sunday to address key national security, trade and economic issues. Among notable movers, Victory Giant (-5%) and Cambricon Technologies (-4%) posted steep losses, while Contemporary Amperex (+13.6%) and Sungrow Power (+10.6%) recorded strong gains.

China Stocks Mixed as Traders Digest Data

The South Korean won appreciated to around 1,389 per dollar on Monday, recouping losses from last week as investor concerns over policy risks eased. Monday’s confirmation that the threshold for major shareholders will remain at KRW 5 billion provided greater policy clarity, further easing concerns over potential equity market disruptions and associated capital outflows. Additional support for the won came from ongoing trade discussions between Seoul and Washington. According to government officials, South Korea has proposed establishing an “unlimited” bilateral currency swap arrangement with the US as part of its follow-up negotiations on a tariff framework deal agreed in late July. The proposal is aimed at strengthening financial stability and providing a safeguard against volatility in the won-dollar exchange rate, particularly as Seoul faces the prospect of sizable capital outflows linked to its pledged investment package in the US.

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