アメリカEIA ガソリン在庫の推移

アメリカEIA原油輸入の変化

アメリカEIA留出燃料生産の変化

アメリカEIAガソリン生産の変化

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a third straight session to 3.95% on Wednesday, its lowest level in over a year, amid lingering expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue easing monetary policy. The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points next week, despite the lack of updated economic data. Meanwhile, concerns over the ongoing government shutdown persist, with no resolution in sight. On Tuesday, President Trump rejected a request from top Democratic lawmakers to meet until the shutdown ends. The US CPI report remains scheduled for release on Friday. Inflation is expected to have accelerated for a second consecutive month in September, reaching the highest level since May 2024. However, both annual core inflation and the monthly rates are projected to remain stable, suggesting that inflationary pressures from tariffs are still contained.

US 10-Year Yield Hovers Near 1-Year Low

The dollar index climbed above 99 on Wednesday, its strongest level in about a week, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session. The greenback benefited from a weaker pound after UK inflation came in below expectations, boosting bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Meanwhile, concerns over the ongoing government shutdown persist, with no resolution in sight. On Tuesday, President Trump rejected a request from top Democratic lawmakers to meet until the shutdown ends. The US CPI report is still expected on Friday. On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points next week, despite the lack of updated economic data. The greenback also strengthened against the euro but was little changed against the yen, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar.

Dollar Index Edges Higher

Yields on Italy’s 10-year BTPs fell toward 3.34%, their lowest level since December last year, in line with a global decline in borrowing costs as investors bet that major central banks, particularly the Fed and the Bank of England, will cut interest rates. In Europe, the ECB enters its pre-meeting blackout period on Thursday ahead of next week’s policy decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will watch for guidance on the outlook, with markets now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut by July 2026. On the political front, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, marking three years in office, emphasized that her government will prioritize national stability over economic growth, stating that “stability” remains the key objective despite subdued economic performance.

Italian 10-Year Yields Drop to Near 11-Month Low

The volume of mortgage applications in the US inched lower by 0.3% from the previous week on the period ending October 17th, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline. The muted movement occurred despite a 5bps drop in benchmark mortgage rates, tracking the decline in longer-maturity Treasury yields amid growth concerns and the outlook of rate cuts by the Fed. “The refinance index increased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase in FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA economist.

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