アメリカFRBのムサレム演説

イギリス英中銀ブリーデン演説

アメリカ17週間の紙幣オークション

アメリカベイカーヒューズオイルリグカウント

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed back to 2.57% on Friday after touching a four-month low of 2.523% earlier in the session, as concerns over escalating US-China trade tensions eased. The shift came after President Donald Trump indicated that high tariffs on Chinese goods would not remain in place long term, signaling a potential thaw in trade relations ahead of his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, bank shares fell globally after two US regional lenders disclosed losses linked to bad and potentially fraudulent loans, heightening concerns about the health of the global credit market. In response, money markets increased bets on rate cuts from both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Traders now price in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut by July 2026, while the Fed is expected to deliver at least two 25-basis-point cuts in its final meetings of the year.

Bund Yields Edge Higher Amid Hopes of US-China Trade Thaw

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note approached 4% on Friday, after dipping to 3.93% earlier in the session. Yields rebounded as results from regional banks gave investors some relief, following a sharp flight to safety earlier in the day triggered by renewed concerns over credit stress in the US banking sector, which had spurred a sell-off in equities and increased demand for Treasuries. At the same time, concerns about an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China appeared to ease after President Trump said current tariffs on Chinese goods were “not sustainable” and confirmed plans to meet with President Xi Jinping in South Korea in the coming weeks. On the data front, key economic releases remain delayed as the federal government shutdown continues, now set to enter its fourth week next week. In monetary policy, markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate at the upcoming meeting later this month.

Treasury Yields March Higher

Foreign investors increased their holdings of Canadian securities by C$25.9 billion in August 2025, slightly below July’s C$26.7 billion. The rise was driven by a strong C$32.6 billion inflow into debt securities—the highest since April 2024—partly offset by a C$6.7 billion divestment from equities. Non-residents bought C$31.2 billion in bonds, led by new private corporate issues denominated in US dollars and euros, while federal and provincial bond purchases also contributed. Investment in money market instruments reached C$1.4 billion, focused on private corporate paper (+C$6.8 billion) and offset by divestment in government paper. Meanwhile, foreign investors sold C$6.7 billion in Canadian stocks, mainly from the energy and mining sectors, though they increased holdings in banking shares. Canadian investors, in turn, purchased C$19.5 billion in foreign securities.

Foreign Investors Boost Canadian Holdings in August

The euro traded just below $1.17 on Friday, hovering near its strongest level since October 6 and heading for a 0.5% weekly gain against the USD, helped by easing political tensions in France and a dovish Fed outlook. In France, Prime Minister Lecornu narrowly survived two consecutive no-confidence votes on Thursday after pledging to suspend a controversial pension reform, averting another government collapse and giving President Macron a brief respite ahead of a tougher battle over the national budget. In the US, Fed policymakers Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran called for further rate cuts to support the labor market, adding to pressure on the dollar, which also faced headwinds from renewed stress in regional banks, persistent US-China trade tensions, and an ongoing government shutdown with no resolution in sight. Markets now expect the Fed to deliver at least two 25-basis-point cuts before year-end, while an 80% probability is priced in for a 25-basis-point ECB cut by July 2026.

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