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The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec traded ticked up to around 6.53%, its highest level since October 1, reflecting investor caution and concerns over demand for government bonds. Indian states are set to sell bonds worth 128 billion rupees via the sale of bonds on Tuesday, lower than most market estimates, potentially signaling tepid investor demand. Meanwhile, traders digested the latest inflation data while also weighing renewed global uncertainty after President Trump floated the idea of punching up tariffs on China. India’s inflation eased to 1.54% in September, below the RBI’s 2–6% target and market expectations of 1.7%, strengthening the case for interest rate cuts in December. The RBI kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged earlier this month but signaled there may be room to ease policy in the coming months to support an economy under pressure from US tariffs. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy meeting minutes on October 15.

India 10Y Yield Edges Higher

Kosovo’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.7% in September 2025, the highest since April 2023, up from 4.5% in August. The pickup was largely driven by stronger price gains in housing and utilities (6.0% vs. 4.8%), recreation and culture (2.6% vs. 2.4%), along with a rebound in transport costs (1.1% vs. -1.8%), while prices fell at a slower pace in communication services (-0.3% vs. -2.1%). In contrast, inflation eased across several major categories, including food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.2% vs. 9.3%), furnishings and household maintenance (2.3% vs. 2.5%), alcohol and tobacco (3.8% vs. 4.4%), clothing and footwear (2.1% vs. 2.3%), and miscellaneous goods and services (2.6% vs. 3.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices slipped 0.2%, reversing a 0.5% gain in August.

Kosovo Inflation Accelerates in September

The Indian rupee traded around 88.7 per USD, close to historic lows, after September’s inflation eased to 1.54%, below market estimates of 1.7% and the RBI’s 2–6% target, fueling expectations of rate cuts. This follows the central bank’s dovish remarks on potential future rate cuts during its September meeting. The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold and maintained a neutral policy stance, noting that muted inflation provides flexibility to support the economy. The currency has traded in a narrow range between 88.7 and 88.9 since September 23, prompting some traders to speculate that the RBI is intervening heavily to keep the rupee anchored. Key factors behind the currency's weakness included prolonged equity outflows, steep US tariffs linked to Russian oil measures, trade uncertainties and a tightening visa regime.

Indian Rupee Hovers Around Record Lows

Cyprus’ current account deficit narrowed to EUR 257.3 million in Q2 2025, down from a revised EUR 341.7 million a year earlier, driven by a smaller primary income gap, which fell to EUR 719.7 million from EUR 819.8 million, and a reduced secondary income deficit of EUR 40.7 million from EUR 47.5 million. The service surplus also rose to EUR 2,318.9 million from EUR 2,101.4 million. Offsetting these gains, the goods deficit widened to EUR 1,815.9 million from EUR 1,575.7 million. For the first half of 2025, the current account deficit remained broadly stable at EUR 1.35 billion, compared with EUR 1.32 billion in the same period of 2024.

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