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Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a key GDP proxy, fell 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, the third straight decline after a 0.1% drop in June and worse than market expectations of -0.2%. Agriculture and livestock output fell 0.8%, industry contracted 1.1%, and services edged down 0.2%. The IBC-Br taxes index declined 0.7%, while the measure excluding agriculture dropped 0.4%. Compared to July 2024, the index rose 1.1%.

Brazil’s IBC-Br Falls in July

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell below 4.05% at the start of the week, hovering near April lows as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut to the fed funds rate on Wednesday, while assigning a small probability to a larger 50 bps move, following recent data showing a sharp cooling in the labor market. Attention will also be on the Fed’s updated macroeconomic projections—particularly the interest rate outlook—with investors broadly expecting cuts to continue through year-end. The vote split will be closely watched as well, as the FOMC has not been divided three ways since 2019. Traders are also monitoring whether Stephen Miran will be confirmed as a Fed governor in time for the meeting.

Treasury Yields Edge Lower, FOMC Eyed

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -8.7 in September 2025, the lowest in three months, compared to 11.9 in August and forecasts of 5. The reading showed manufacturing activity declined modestly in New York State, as new orders (-19.6 vs 15.4) and shipments (-17.3 vs 12.2) fell sharply. Also, delivery times were steady (0.0 vs 17.4), and unfilled orders worsened somewhat (-6.9 vs -5.5). Inventories edged lower for a second consecutive month (-4.9 vs -6.4) and employment held steady (-1.2 vs 4.4), while the average workweek declined modestly (-5.1 vs 0.2). On the price front, input price increases remained elevated (46.1 vs 54.1) while selling price increases remained moderate (21.6 vs 22.9). "Optimism about the outlook remained muted and employment levels are expected to be flat over the next six months", according to Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.

Manufacturing Activity in NY Declines in September

Canada’s manufacturing sales rose by 2.5% to CAD 70.3 billion in July 2025, following a 0.3% increase in June, beating an earlier estimate of a 1.8% advance. This marked the strongest increase since January 2023, driven by higher sales of transportation equipment (+8.6%), petroleum and coal products (+6.2%) and primary metals (+3.5%). Meanwhile, sales of chemicals saw the largest decline, falling 2.5% in July.  On a year-over-year basis, total manufacturing sales were down 1.7%.

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