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The benchmark KOSPI rose 1.8% to around 3,120 on Tuesday, marking the highest level in almost four years as investors assessed a raft of promising economic data amid ongoing unease regarding the US interest rate policy. While expectations for potential rate cuts later this year have increased,  ambiguity remains over the timing and pace of these adjustments, keeping markets cautious. Notably, on the domestic front, South Korea’s trade surplus widened to USD 9.08 billion in June, the largest in a year—driven by exports outpacing imports. Further boosting sentiment, the manufacturing sector signaled a move toward recovery as the PMI rose 48.7 points in June from 47.7 in the previous month. Among index heavyweights, chipmakers and autos led the charge such as Samsung Electronics (1.8%), Hyundai Motor (2.2%), and Kia Corporation (2.2%).

KOSPI Gains Momentum on Solid Economic Performance

The US dollar index fell to around 96.7 on Tuesday, its lowest level since February 2022, as growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Markets are closely watching the Senate’s progress on President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending package, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. At the same time, investors are awaiting developments on trade negotiations between the US and key partners, with Trump’s 90-day reprieve on broad reciprocal tariffs set to expire next week. Adding further pressure on the  greenback, traders increased bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts amid dovish signals from policymakers and ongoing pressure from Trump to reduce borrowing costs. The dollar dropped to a nearly four-year low against the euro and a three-and-a-half-year low against the British pound. Attention now turns to Thursday’s monthly jobs report for new signals on the strength of the US labor market.

Dollar Weakens on Fiscal and Trade Worries

The General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.4 in June 2025, up from 48.3 in May—which had marked the steepest contraction since September 2022—and beating market forecasts of 49. The upturn was supported by a renewed rise in production, driven by higher new orders. Output growth was the fastest since last November, supported by a fresh increase in new orders amid improved trade conditions and promotional activities.

China Factory Activity Unexpectedly Grows

Gold climbed to around $3,310 per ounce on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, underpinned by a weaker US dollar. The dollar retreated amid concerns over the ballooning US government deficit, with investors monitoring the progress of a huge tax-cutting and spending bill slowly advancing through the Senate. Uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries also provided support for gold. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, just over a week before a July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to restart. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year continued to bolster gold’s appeal. Investors now await the US job openings data, the ADP employment report, and the non-farm payrolls report, due this week, for more clues on the Fed’s policy path.

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