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South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield ticked up to around 9.20% but remained near January lows, as investors continued to chase higher real yields amid prospects of US rate cuts, attracted by strong returns and a yield premium over US Treasuries. Meanwhile, market participants closely assessed recent central bank moves, with particular focus on the US Federal Reserve’s resumption of its rate-cutting cycle. Domestically, the South African Reserve Bank held its repo rate at 7%, allowing time to evaluate the impact of previous reductions, given economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, while targeting the lower end of its 3%-6% range.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Hovers Near January Lows

US natural gas futures dropped over 3% to below $2.99/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected storage build. Firms injected 90 bcf of gas into storage in the week to September 12, surpassing forecasts of 81 bcf, compared with 56 bcf a year ago and a five-year average build of 74 bcf. Mild weather curbed both heating and cooling demand, allowing for higher injections. Also, LNG exports softened, with flows to the eight major US export plants averaging 15.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. On the supply side, Lower 48 output averaged 107.4 bcfd in September, down from August’s record 108.3 bcfd.

US Natgas Prices Fall after EIA Data

The Mexican peso weakened toward 18.35 per US dollar, easing from its strongest level since July 2024 of 18.29 seen September 16th, as the US dollar regained strength after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and expectations of Fed cuts beyond the near term were scaled back, which reduced the carry advantage. In Mexico headline inflation in August was about 3.57% with core inflation near 4.23% which is relatively contained but still keeps Banxico cautious, limiting aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile growth forecasts have softened, industrial output showed contractions and prospects for private spending have cooled, reducing demand for peso-denominated assets. External pressures such as higher US yields, plus some correction after a rapid run-up of MXN, also contributed to the weakening.

Mexican Peso Eases from July 2024 Highs

Energy firms in the US injected 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 12, above market expectations of 81 bcf. The build was sharply higher than the increase of 56 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 74 bcf over the past five years. With the build, storage remained 0.1% below the corresponding period of the previous year, but held at levels 6.3% above the current five-year average.

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