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UK natural gas futures climbed above 83 pence per therm, the highest in over two weeks, following similar gains in European markets amid forecasts of warmer-than-average weather. The UK has already experienced a hot start to summer, with temperatures expected to reach 32°C in London by Friday, increasing energy demand. Norwegian gas flows have stabilized, with minimal maintenance disruptions expected in July, supporting supply. In corporate news, Centrica signed a landmark £20 billion deal with Norway’s Equinor to supply 5 bcm of natural gas annually to the UK through 2035. The agreement bolsters UK energy security, as imports met nearly two-thirds of UK demand in 2024, with Norway providing over half. Centrica CEO Chris O’Shea called it an investment in the UK’s future. Equinor, despite shelving blue hydrogen plans in Norway, remains committed to hydrogen projects across Europe, including the UK.

UK Natural Gas Futures Rise to Over 2-Week High

European natural gas futures rose to €34.8/MWh, the highest in two weeks, supported by forecasts for warmer-than-average weather and stable supply. Next week is expected to bring elevated temperatures, following the hottest June on record for Western Europe. The region saw temperatures exceed 38°C, driven by both extreme heat on land and record sea temperatures in the western Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the European Parliament approved relaxed gas storage rules, allowing countries until December to meet the 90% storage target, reducing the risk of inflated prices. On supply, TotalEnergies’ CEO said Europe will manage without Russian LNG by 2028 due to new capacity in the US and Qatar. He also reassured on gasoline supply, while warning about trade risks from escalating US tariffs under President Trump, which could dampen growth.

TTF Prices Rose to 2-Week Highs

Copper futures in the US were at $5.5 per pound, easing from the record high of $5.7 touched earlier in the session but still hovering 10% higher than Monday's close after President Trump signaled that the metal would be tariffed at 50%. The US President said that copper would be tariffed shortly after they conclude tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but refrained from giving details on the timing, potential grace periods, and grades of metal. This drove the premium between US copper and comparable futures at the LME to 25%, a record high, as foreign benchmarks declined, signaling the end of increasing domestic stockpiles as traders moved copper into the US since tariff threats on base metals started in February. If implemented, the tariff would threaten the domestic ore output is relatively low and refining capacity would be stressed, as the country only has two smelters and limited refining capacity.

Copper Trims Surge, US Premiums Hold Record High

Croatia’s trade deficit narrowed to EUR 1.4 billion in May 2025 from EUR 2.0 billion in the same month last year, according to preliminary data. The improvement was largely driven by a sharp contraction in imports, which fell 14.4% year-on-year to EUR 3.5 billion, while exports inched up 0.4% to EUR 2.0 billion. For the January–May period, the trade gap narrowed to EUR 8.0 billion, compared to EUR 8.4 billion during the same period in 2024. Exports rose 5.4% to EUR 10.2 billion, supported by stronger demand from both EU countries (5.9%) and non-EU countries (4.1%). Imports edged up 0.7% to EUR 18.2 billion, driven by a surge in purchases from non-EU countries (13.2%), while imports from EU countries declined (-2.7%).

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