アメリカEIA原油輸入の変化

アメリカEIA製油所の原油実行の変更

アメリカEIAガソリン生産の変化

アメリカEIA留出燃料生産の変化

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose up to 4.15% on Wednesday, the highest in one month, as the limited scope of private economic data releases reflected some resilience in the US economy. The ISM Services PMI rose more than expected in October, while its price gauge rose to a three year high. Also, the ADP Employment report, pointed to a rebound in private-sector employment to limit concerns of an uncontrolled increase in unemployment. Hence, 65% of the market positioned for a cut in the FOMC's December decision, compared to a full consensus last week. In the meantime, the Treasury signaled it borrow $125 billion in the incoming quarter, as previously signaled, and maintained the previous distribution of debt along the curve. The move challenged lingering expectations that the Treasury would further increase borrowing through shorter-term yields, especially after the Fed signaled it would become a net buyer of Treasury bills starting December to offset maturing MBS assets.

US 10-Year Yield Rises to 1-Month High

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, advanced for a second day on Wednesday, rising about 2.3% to its highest level since October 23 at 2,003 points, bolstered by the larger segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, was also up for a second session, surging 4.7% to 3,084 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, halted a seven-day losing streak, rising 0.3% to 1,793 points. Conversely, the supramax index eased 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1,307 points.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 2nd Day

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose above 2.65%, revisiting its highest level since October 9, as investors assessed fresh data and its implications for monetary policy from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The ECB’s wage tracker, closely aligned with its indicator of negotiated wages, showed average pay growth slowing to 3.0% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, and further to 2.2% by Q3 2026, consistent with the ECB’s 2% inflation target. The data reinforced expectations that the central bank will keep rates unchanged for an extended period. Meanwhile, in Germany, factory orders rebounded more than expected in September, and private sector activity grew in October at the fastest pace since May 2023, signaling a tentative recovery in Europe’s largest economy. Across the Atlantic, US Treasury yields also climbed as traders pared back bets on further Fed rate cuts, following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments and stronger-than-expected readings for ADP employment and ISM services activity.

German 10-Year Yield Rises

Brent crude oil futures fell to $64.2 per barrel, extending a 0.7% loss in the previous session as concerns over oversupply and weak demand weighed on sentiment. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed US crude inventories surged by 6.5 million barrels last week, the largest build since July, while fuel stockpiles declined. Prices have come under pressure amid rising production from both OPEC+ and non-member countries, fueling fears of a global glut. OPEC+ recently agreed to a small output increase for December but plans to pause hikes in early 2026, signaling awareness of weakening demand. Meanwhile, India’s Reliance Industries sold a shipment of Iraqi oil to Europe, raising questions amid tighter US sanctions on Russia’s top oil firms. Additionally, disappointing manufacturing PMIs from Asia and the US highlighted slower industrial activity, further dampening the demand outlook.

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