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The UK’s 10-year gilt yield eased to 4.64%, mirroring declines in Europe and the US, as investors stayed cautious ahead of a packed week of central bank decisions and key UK data. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4% on Thursday while slowing the pace of its £100 billion annual bond unwind. Focus will also be on UK inflation, jobs, and retail sales data. CPI for August is forecast to hold at 3.8% y/y, an 18-month high and nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. The BoE is projected to cut once next quarter and again early next year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 bps cut on Wednesday, with traders pricing in at least two further cuts by end-2025.

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Eases Ahead CB Decisions

The S&P/TSX Composite hovered below the flatline around the 29,280 level on Monday, weighed down by commodity producers as investors awaited policy decisions from North America’s major central banks. Energy and mining names gave back some of last week’s gains even as oil and gold held higher, while the rate-sensitive technology sector provided the clearest support. Markets are pricing a 25 basis point cut from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday amid signs of a weakening labour market and softer economic activity, with another reduction expected next quarter. The Federal Reserve is also fully priced for a 25 basis point cut at its upcoming meeting, with a small chance of a larger move, and traders broadly expect additional easing through year end.

TSX Struggles for Direction

The British pound climbed past $1.360, close to a 10-week high, as markets await a busy week of central bank decisions and UK data. The Bank of England is expected to hold its policy rate at 4% on Thursday and slow the pace of its £100 billion annual bond unwind. UK inflation for August, due Wednesday, is seen at 3.8% year-on-year, matching July’s 18-month high. The jobs report and retail sales will follow later in the week. Markets currently see a one-in-three chance of a BoE cut by December. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, with traders pricing in at least two further reductions by end-2025.

Sterling Rises Toward 10-Week High Ahead BoE Meeting

The Turkish lira steadied around record lows of 41.2 per USD in mid-September after a court postponed until October 24 a ruling on the leadership of the main opposition Republican People’s Party. The case, centered on alleged irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress and the removal of its elected leadership, had initially been scheduled for September 15. The delay provided some momentary relief to investors concerned about political instability, with banking stocks—among the hardest hit—leading the recovery. Separately, hundreds of CHP members, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s chief political rival, remain in detention pending trial in a wide-ranging investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. On the monetary front, the Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 250 bps in September to 40.5%, slightly below expectations of 41%. Annual inflation eased to 32.95% in August while GDP expanded 4.8% yoy in Q2 2025.

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