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The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia slipped 0.1% month-over-month in August 2025, after a 0.1% rise in July. The six-month annualized growth rate also fell to 0.16% from 0.1%, its first below-trend reading since late 2024, signaling a clear softening from the above-trend momentum seen earlier this year. The pattern points to growth easing again after a firm Q2. Westpac forecasts GDP to expand 1.9% in 2025, up from 1.3% in 2024 but still slightly below trend, before returning to trend in 2026. With inflation and consumer demand proving firmer than expected, the RBA is set to keep the cash rate at 3.6% in its September meeting. However, evidence of slowing growth should allow room for a 25bps cut in November, followed by two more cuts in 2026.

Australia Leading Index Down Slightly

The Japanese yen slipped to around 146.6 per dollar on Wednesday after soft trade data reignited concerns over Japan’s export-reliant economy. Exports fell 0.1% in August, less than expected but still the fourth consecutive monthly decline, led by a 13.8% drop in shipments to the US. Imports contracted 5.2%, moderating from July’s 7.4% slide yet surpassing the 4.1% decline forecast by analysts. On monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5% as policymakers weigh domestic and external risks, including tariffs. Still, the yen hovered near two-month highs as the dollar softened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point cut later today, with markets pricing in about 67 basis points of easing by year-end.

Japanese Yen Eases Amid Soft Trade Data

Brent crude oil futures hovered around $68.4 per barrel on Wednesday, holding most of its three-day gains to remain near a two-week high. Traders continued to assess heightened supply risks after Ukraine’s intensified drone strikes on Russian refineries and export facilities. Industry sources said Transneft warned producers of possible output cuts, but the company denied this, calling the report Western disinformation. Beyond the conflict, oil prices were also supported by expectations of further Western sanctions on Russia and potential new restrictions on buyers of its crude. Investors kept a close watch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with a widely anticipated rate cut expected to stimulate economic activity and boost fuel demand. Separately, industry data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.42 million barrels last week, more than double the forecast decline of 1.6 million barrels.

Brent Holds Near Two-Week High

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $64.5 per barrel on Wednesday, holding most of its three-day gains to remain near a two-week high. Traders continued to assess heightened supply risks after Ukraine’s intensified drone strikes on Russian refineries and export facilities. Industry sources said Transneft warned producers of possible output cuts, but the company denied this, calling the report Western disinformation. Beyond the conflict, oil prices were also supported by expectations of further Western sanctions on Russia and potential new restrictions on buyers of its crude. Investors kept a close watch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with a widely anticipated rate cut expected to stimulate economic activity and boost fuel demand. Separately, industry data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.42 million barrels last week, more than double the forecast decline of 1.6 million barrels.

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