日本三次産業指数前月比

オーストラリアRBA ハウザー氏のスピーチ

イギリスHMRCの給与計算の変更

イギリス雇用の変更

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 1.6% on Tuesday as investors returned from an extended holiday and looked ahead to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision this week. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Traders are also awaiting fresh domestic data, with exports and imports expected to remain weak and core CPI forecast to slow to 2.7%, the lowest since November 2024. Externally, markets are preparing for an expected US Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, supported by recent signs of a cooling labor market and subdued inflation in the US.

Japan 10-Year Yield Rises Ahead of BOJ Meeting

Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow to 6.5% this year, down from 7.09% in 2024, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. The multilateral lender warned that “downside risks are high,” citing the unwinding of temporary government stimulus and potential fallout from escalating global trade tensions or tighter financial conditions. Such developments, the IMF noted, could further dampen exports and investment. The outlook suggests continued pressure on Vietnam’s export-driven economy amid shifting global trade dynamics and policy headwinds. In Q2, Vietnam’s GDP grew robustly by 7.96% yoy, accelerating from a 6.93% rise in Q1 and marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022, with all major sectors like services, industry, and agriculture all posting stronger expansion.

IMF Trims 2025 Vietnam Growth Forecast to 6.5% on U.S. Tariff Hit

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury held around 4.04% on Tuesday, staying near five-month lows as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today. Markets are nearly fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut this week, with a total of 67 bps of easing expected by year-end. Those expectations have been reinforced by data pointing to a cooling labor market and subdued inflation despite tariffs. President Donald Trump also pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a “larger” cut, citing housing market weakness. On the data front, investors will track retail sales, import prices, housing indicators and business inventories later today. On trade, Trump said Monday that US-China talks in Spain were making progress, with a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set for Friday to finalize terms.

US 10-Year Yield Stabilizes Ahead of Fed Meeting

The Australian dollar held steady around $0.666 on Tuesday, following gains from the previous session, supported by diminishing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing in an 86% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its September meeting. This sentiment has been bolstered by a strong July trade surplus, resilient Q2 GDP figures, and hotter July inflation. Additionally, consumer inflation expectations rose in September, signaling sustained domestic demand and raising concerns about a possible resurgence in inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar also found support from encouraging geopolitical developments. On Monday, the US and China reached a commercial agreement that would bring TikTok under US ownership, with final approval anticipated during a Friday call between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping.

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