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Brent crude oil futures fell to $65.5 per barrel on Monday as concerns over ample global supply outweighed optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal. Oil prices had initially risen after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he had reached a “substantial framework” with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which will be discussed when their respective leaders meet later this week. The talks covered a wide range of issues, including, export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related tariffs, and agricultural trade. Support for oil prices also came from continued concerns over Russian supply, after the US imposed new sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for about half of Russia’s daily oil production. However, the IEA noted that the oil market is expected to remain in surplus, with production from the so-called “American quintet”, the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, outpacing demand growth.

Brent Prices Reverse Early Gains

WTI crude oil futures fell to $61.1 per barrel on Monday as concerns over ample global supply outweighed optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal. Oil prices had initially risen after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he had reached a “substantial framework” with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which will be discussed when their respective leaders meet later this week. The talks covered a wide range of issues, including, export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related tariffs, and agricultural trade. Support for oil prices also came from continued concerns over Russian supply, after the US imposed new sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for about half of Russia’s daily oil production. However, the IEA noted that the oil market is expected to remain in surplus, with production from the so-called “American quintet”, the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, outpacing demand growth.

Oil Prices Reverse Early Gains

Germany's DAX edged up to around 24,290 on Monday, tracking a general positive sentiment across markets, amid encouraging trade news. Over the weekend, US and Chinese negotiators reached a preliminary trade framework, describing their discussions as “constructive” ahead of next Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi in South Korea. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Beijing plans to delay export restrictions on rare minerals, resume US soybean purchases, and help curbing the fentanyl crisis in exchange for Washington waiving the planned 100% additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This week, all eyes will also be on decisions by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings season continues on both sides of the Atlantic, with the market particularly awaiting the financial statements of US tech giants.

DAX Starts Week on Higher Note

Retail sales in Lithuania rose by 4.1% year-on-year in September 2025, easing from a downwardly revised 6.3% increase in August and marking the softest growth in four months. Automotive fuel sales fell by 3.3% in September after showing no growth in August, while sales growth for non-food products slowed to 10.4% from 14.4%. It partially offset the rebound in sales of food, beverages, and tobacco, which rose 1.1% after a 0.6% drop, and trade in non-specialized stores, which increased by 0.7% following a 0.1% fall in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased by 1.1% in September, reversing a downwardly revised 1.3% gain in August and marking the first decline since January.

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