アメリカ製造生産前年同期比

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Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% on Tuesday, after both indexes closed at fresh record highs in the previous session, while Dow Jones futures hovered near the flatline. Traders remained focused on the FOMC meeting, which begins today, with the Fed expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut on Wednesday. On the data front, retail sales surprised to the upside, while both export and import prices came in above forecasts. Still, the figures did little to shift market expectations for Fed policy. In corporate news, Oracle gained around 4% in premarket trading following reports it is part of a consortium that could allow TikTok to continue operating in the US. Alphabet (+0.5%) and Tesla (+1.2%) also traded higher, while Nvidia slipped 0.2% before the opening bell.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Set to Extend Record Run

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note inched higher to 4.06% on Tuesday after briefly yielding less than 4% on September 11th as markets assessed the impact of strong data on US rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision tomorrow. Retail sales rose by 0.6% in August while the control group index, which has a large impact on the US GDP, surged by 0.7% to record the fourth straight month of growth. The result continued to underscore a resilient consumer, challenging concerns of an uncontrolled economic slowdown that have emerged on pessimistic jobs reports. Evidence of a deteriorating labor backdrop drove the Fed to signal that it will restart its cutting cycle tomorrow with a 25bps rate cut, while the Summary of Economic Projections will give hints on how the FOMC balances risks of stubborn inflation against increasing unemployment. Besides elevated inflation figures, import prices unexpectedly rose in August, signaling a potential pro-inflationary impact from tariffs.

US 10-Year Yield Inches Higher

The dollar index fell toward 97 on Tuesday, hitting an over two-month low as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting later today. Markets are almost fully priced for a 25 basis point cut this week, with a total of 67 bps of easing expected by year-end. Expectations have been reinforced by recent data pointing to a cooling labor market and subdued inflation despite tariffs. President Donald Trump also urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a larger cut, citing weakness in housing. In terms of data, US retail sales climbed in August for the third consecutive month, marking a broad-based increase that capped off a resilient summer of consumer spending. On trade, Trump said Monday that US-China negotiations in Spain were progressing well, with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to speak on Friday to finalize terms.

DXY Falls to Over 2-Month Low

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in the July 2025 moving quarter, down from 5.8% and slightly below market expectations of 5.7%, marking the lowest level since the series began in 2012. The unemployed population dropped to 6.1 million, the lowest since late 2013, while the employed population hit a record 102.4 million. The employment-to-population ratio held at its record 58.8%. Job growth was driven by agriculture (+206,000 workers), information and professional services (+260,000), and public administration, education, health, and social services (+522,000). Meanwhile, average real earnings rose 1.3% to R$3,484.

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