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The Brazilian real hovered around 5.3 per US dollar in September, its strongest level since June 2024, as investors digested the latest US Federal Reserve decision while awaiting the Brazilian Central Bank’s announcement. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with Chair Powell noting that risks of higher and more persistent inflation have eased since April, framing the move as a ‘risk management’ cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. Only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point reduction, resulting in fewer dissents than markets had anticipated. Domestically, the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to maintain the Selic rate at 15% and signaled persistence in its hawkish stance to control inflation. Recent data show moderation in economic growth while inflation remains contained, giving the central bank room to sustain a tight policy even as external conditions improve.

Brazilian Real at Strongest Level Since Mid-2024

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rebounded to 4.07% on Wednesday after briefly falling below the five-month low of 4% threshold as market assessed the rate outlook following the Fed's rate cut. The FOMC reduced its rates by 25bps, as expected, to restart the cutting cycle that was paused since December.  Median projections by FOMC members indicated that policymakers see two additional rate cuts taking place this year, but robust projections on real growth, unemployment, and upward revisions to core inflation struck some skepticism on the room for sharper cuts next year, lifting yields throughout all maturities. In the funding markets front, the Fed maintained the pace of its quantitative tightening despite the aggressive drawdown in its overnight reverse repo facility since the last meeting.

US 10-Year Yield Rebounds from 5-Month Low

US stocks swung higher on a choppy Wednesday afternoon as markets assessed the rate outlook for the Federal Reserve following its expected 25bps rate cut. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were slightly higher, while the Dow added 300 points on traditional sectors of the economy. Median projections by FOMC members indicated that policymakers see two additional rate cuts taking place this year, but robust projections on real growth, unemployment, and upward revisions to core inflation struck some skepticism on the room for sharper cuts next year. Consumer staples and credit services were higher, with American Express and P&G adding around 2%. In turn, tech shares led the losses, with Nvidia and Broadcom sinking 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively, on reports that Chinese authorities may have barred the purchase of Nvidia chips. In the meantime, Oracle and Palantir fell more than 3%, while Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla dropped more than 1.5%.

US Stocks Remain Volatile After Fed

The dollar index initially fell to its lowest level since 2022 before recovering to trade higher at 96.8 on Wednesday, as traders digested the latest FOMC decision. The Fed cut the funds rate by 25 bps, as expected—the first reduction in borrowing costs this year—while signaling an additional 50 bps of cuts before year-end, slightly more than projected in June. At the press conference however, Chair Powell noted that risks of higher and more persistent inflation have eased since April, framing today’s move as a ‘risk management’ cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. Meanwhile, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran voted for a larger 50 bps cut, resulting in fewer dissents than markets had anticipated.

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