イギリス小売価格指数前年比

イギリス小売価格指数前月比

イギリスPPI輸入前年同期比

イギリスPPI輸入前月比

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury held around 3.64% in subdued trade on Wednesday, hovering near 15-month lows as investors braced for the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, where it is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. Markets remain divided on the size of the reduction, with odds for an outsized 50 basis point cut currently standing at 65%, up significantly from 25% a month ago. Meanwhile, the benchmark yield gained some ground on Tuesday following a strong US retail sales reading. Retail sales in the US unexpectedly edged up 0.1% in August from a month earlier, defying forecasts for a 0.2% decline and following an upwardly revised 1.1% surge in July.

US 10-Year Yield Muted Ahead of Fed Decision

The Shanghai Composite traded flat around 2,704 while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.4% to 7,950 on Wednesday, with both benchmarks hovering at seven-month lows as Chinese markets reopened after a long holiday, while investors search for fresh catalysts. Data released over the weekend showed that industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investments in China missed forecasts in August. The urban unemployment rate also rose to a six-month high while home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years. Investors now look ahead to the central bank’s loan prime rate decisions later this week. Notable gains were seen from Shijiazhuang Chan (10%), Baoding Tianwei (10%) and SHN Huaqiang (1.7%), while sharp losses were seen from Kweichow Moutai (-2.1%), Luxshare Precision (4%) and Anhui Jianghuai (-2.8%).

China Stocks Wobble in Post-Holiday Trade

Gold held around $2,570 per ounce on Wednesday, close to record highs, amid a weaker dollar ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The FOMC's two-day policy meeting concludes later today, with the Fed expected to announce its first rate cut since 2020. Fed fund futures show that investors increasingly expect a 50-basis-point cut, with markets pricing in a 65% probability, while the chance of a smaller 25-basis-point cut stands at 35%. Meanwhile, gold slightly eased on Tuesday as data revealed US retail sales rose 0.1% in August, contrary to a forecasted 0.2% decline, following a revised 1.1% surge in July, suggesting relatively strong consumer spending. Elsewhere, the BoE is expected to keep UK rates unchanged on Thursday, while the BoJ is likely to maintain rates on Friday but signal a readiness to hike if forecasts are met.

Gold Steady Ahead of Fed Decision

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.676, hitting its highest levels in two weeks ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, which would be the first one since 2020. Markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance for an outsized 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed, up significantly from 25% a month ago, despite a stronger-than-expected US retail sales reading this week. Stronger commodity prices also supported the local currency as Australia is a net exporter of major metals and energy.  Meanwhile, markets look forward to a slew of Australian jobs data due later this week to gauge the health of the labor market and the potential implications on domestic monetary policy. Reserve Bank of Australia officials maintained a hawkish outlook of monetary policy, although an aggressive US rate cut will likely add to the chance of an earlier easing from the RBA.

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