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アメリカEIA天然ガス在庫の変化

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The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.3 per US dollar in September, its strongest level since June 2024, after the Central Bank kept the Selic at 15% and signalled a prolonged hold as inflation eases only gradually, which lifted real interest rate differentials. Economic activity has softened, with the IBC-Br index down 0.5% month on month in July, yet inflation remained elevated at about 5.1% in August, well above the 3% target and justifying a cautious policy stance. Markets now expect rate cuts only from early 2026. At the same time the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled additional easing, stripping support for the US dollar and reducing external pressure on Brazil.

Brazilian Real Strengthens to Over 1-Year High

The South African Reserve Bank left its key repo rate unchanged at 7% on September 18, 2025, as widely anticipated, saying risks to growth and inflation are balanced. The decision was not unanimous, with four members voting to keep rates unchanged and two favoring a 25-basis-point cut. Policymakers noted that headline inflation has picked up in recent months, broadly as expected. It is expected to rise over the next few months, peaking around 4% before easing back to 3%, averaging 3.6% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.

South Africa Keeps Key Interest Rate Unchanged at 7%

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.1% on Thursday from the five-month low of below 4% touched after yesterday's Federal Reserve rate decision, as markets continued to assess the outlook of global rates. The Fed cut its key rates by 25bps, as expected, and projected a median of two more curs this year. Still, policymakers also projected that core inflation will be higher than previously expected while growth and unemployment outlooks improved. The backdrop projected supported yields across the curve, magnified by Chairman Powell's signal that the single cut did not necessarily anticipate future monetary easing. On top of that, a fresh decline in unemployment claims and strong Philly Fed activity index challenged limited concerns of a deteriorating labor market, adding pressure on Treasury securities. In the meantime, the Fed maintained the pace of its quantitative tightening despite the aggressive drawdown in its overnight reverse repo facility since the last meeting.

US 10-Year Yield Rebounds Further

The British pound slipped below $1.36 as investors digested fresh central bank signals. The Bank of England held rates at 4% in a 7-2 vote, with long-standing doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor backing a cut. The Bank reiterated its “cautious and gradual” stance on easing, while slowing quantitative tightening from £100 billion to £70 billion annually, focusing sales on shorter-dated gilts. Inflation forecasts were little changed, while Q2 growth came in slightly stronger than expected, though the overall economy remains subdued. Traders modestly added to long-term easing bets, now pricing in 45 bps of cuts by end-2026, but expectations for this year remain steady. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bps cut as expected and signaled another 50 bps of reductions by year-end. Chair Jerome Powell, however, stressed the move was a “risk management” step rather than the start of a full easing cycle.

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