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Aluminum futures in the UK were above $2,775 per tonne, holding close to the three-year high of $2,800 touched on October 17th amid tight supply and bullish bets on longer-term demand. Chinese authorities cut their annual output growth target for base metals to an average of 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, compared to the 5% target previously. The curb was in line with the China's aluminum output cap of 45 million tons, which is set to be breached this year under current capacity, amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign to slow capacity for manufacturers in an effort to control deflationary pressures. Elsewhere, Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades. In the meantime, bets of aluminum consumption in the longer term were supported by corporate pledges of expenditure in new data centers, which take a large volume of aluminum.

Aluminum Trades Near 3-Year High

The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ fell to 14.6% from the four-month high of 15.2% tested earlier in October, tracking some support for Russian assets on favorable geopolitical developments. US President Trump noted that Ukrainian President Zelensky should accept more favorable terms to end the war with Russia, while EU leaders faced barriers to using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. The developments added some respite to OFZ's after higher bond supply and higher interest rates triggered a plunge in Russian debt since August. The draft of next year's budget reflected RUB 13 trillion, or 40% of the federal budget, allocated for defense spending amid Russia's war with Ukraine, more than noted in preliminary documents, to extend the period of ample spending by the Russian federal government. The flat spending coincided with risks to government revenues amid Russia's slowing economy, low Russian commodity prices amid a strong ruble, and high interest rates by the central bank.

Russian 10-Year Yield Declines from 4-Month High

The US dollar index inched marginally higher to 98.5 on Monday as broad weakness for G10 currencies offset the impact of a prolonged government shutdown, uncertainty in US trade, and the outlook of lower rates by the Federal Reserve. The euro edged lower after S&P delivered a surprise rating downgrade for France as its political uncertainty worsens the fiscal backdrop in the Eurozone. The yen was also pressured on the near-confirmation of incoming PM Takaichi, seen as fiscally-dovish. In the meantime, the Fed is still expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut next week ahead of the September CPI report due Friday. The ongoing government shutdown has halted the release of key data that the Fed uses to set policy decisions, but private surveys largely reflect a deterioration in the labor market. Also, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet this week in an effort to defuse tensions ahead of a possible Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

US Dollar Hovers Steady at Week Start

Colombia’s leading economic indicator rose 1.98% year-on-year in August 2025, decelerating from a 4.3% gain in July. Growth was driven by the services sector, with the index of tertiary activities up 3.31%, though slower than the previous month’s 5.6%. In contrast, secondary activities fell 0.57% after rising 4.3% in July, while primary activities contracted 2.04%, deepening a 1.6% decline in the prior month. On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, overall economic activity dropped 2.1% from July.

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