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Wheat prices hovered around $5 per bushel, close to their lowest level since August 2020, pressured by global oversupply and escalating US–China trade tensions. According to the Hightower Report, demand for wheat remains stable, but ample global stocks are allowing end consumers to delay purchases. The Russian consultancy SovEcon raised its 2025 forecast for wheat production in Russia, one of the world’s top exporters, to 87.8 million metric tons (MMT), citing record yields in Siberia, while Argentina is expected to produce 23 million tonnes of wheat, matching the record production of 2021-22. Trade tensions added further pressure, with President Trump suggesting Washington might end certain trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil despite a year-long slump in shipments. Both countries also began imposing additional port fees on each other’s shipping firms, following Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing’s tighter controls on rare earth exports.

Wheat Prices Remain Low Amid Oversupply and Trade Tensions

Arabica coffee futures climbed above $4.00 per pound, the highest in four weeks, as persistent dry weather in Brazil’s main coffee-growing region fueled supply concerns. Meteorologist Somar reported that Minas Gerais, responsible for much of Brazil’s arabica output, received only 48% of normal rainfall in the week to October 11, threatening the flowering of the 2026/27 crop. Additionally, ICE coffee inventories have been declining, with arabica stocks at a 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags and robusta inventories at a 2.75-month low. US tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee have exacerbated the situation, prompting American buyers to cancel contracts and depleting the domestic supply, as Brazil provides roughly one-third of the US's unroasted coffee. Further adding to bullish sentiment, NOAA raised the probability of a La Niña event to 71%, which could deepen Brazil’s drought. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica production forecast by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.

Coffee Futures Rise to 4-Week High

The annual inflation rate in Croatia edged up to 4.2% in September 2025 from 4.1% in the previous month, confirming initial estimates. This marked the highest rate since December 2023, driven primarily by higher costs for for housing and utilities (8.8% vs 8.1% in August). Prices for communication also rebounded (2.4% vs -0.4%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.7% vs 6.3%), miscellaneous goods and services (4.5% vs 5.4%), and restaurants and hotels (7.0% vs 7.5%). Transport costs continued to drop, albeit at a slower pace (-0.8% vs -1.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4% in September, following a 0.1% rise in August.

Croatia September Inflation Confirmed at 4.2%

Eurozone industrial production slipped 1.2% month-over-month in August 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in July and narrowly beating market expectations of a 1.6% drop. Capital goods output was the main drag, falling 2.2% after a 1.7% increase in July, followed by declines in durable consumer goods (-1.6% vs 1.2%), energy (-0.6% vs -1.7%), and intermediate goods (-0.2% vs 0.5%). Non-durable consumer goods output nearly stagnated at 0.1% compared with 1.8% in July. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, output fell in Germany (-5.2% vs 1.5%), Italy (-2.4% vs 0.4%), France (-0.7% vs -0.1%), and Spain (-0.1% vs -0.5%), while the Netherlands posted growth of 2.3% after a 1.3% decline the previous month. On an annual basis, Eurozone industrial production growth slowed to 1.1% in August from 2.0% in July.

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