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Hong Kong stocks rose 93 points, or 0.4%, to 26,480 in early trade on Monday, marking gains for the second session. Sentiment was supported by a modest rise in U.S. futures ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting later this week, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps, though some traders are betting on a deeper half-point reduction amid cooling labor markets and mild inflation. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid entered their second day, signaling an intensification of diplomacy between the two countries. Tech and consumer names led the gains. However, the upside was capped by weak data from China, showing industrial production growth at its slowest in a year, retail sales growing the least in eight months, and the jobless rate rising to a six-month high.

Hong Kong Equities Kick off Week Higher

China’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 1.87% on Monday, hitting its highest level since early April, as disappointing economic data reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile outlook. Reports showed retail sales and industrial output growth both missed forecasts in August, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic demand, while fixed-asset investment slowed further and the jobless rate rose to a six-month high. The National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged the risks, urging that macro policies be fully implemented to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations while deepening reform and innovation, a stance that pushed long-term yields higher. Meanwhile, investors monitored US-China talks in Spain, the fourth meeting in four months, which focused on national security, trade, and economic issues, including TikTok’s divestment deadline and US tariff plans. Markets now turn to this week’s PBOC policy decision, with expectations pointing to no change.

China 10Y Yield Hits Over 5-Month High

The yen strengthened to around 147.5 per dollar on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses as markets turned their focus to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. The BOJ is widely expected to leave rates steady at 0.5% as officials weigh domestic headwinds and global risks, including the effects of US tariffs. Traders also await fresh trade data, with both exports and imports projected to stay subdued, as well as inflation figures, where core CPI is forecast to slow to 2.7%, the lowest since November 2024. Externally, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with recent US data signaling softer labor conditions and muted inflation. Meanwhile, trading volumes are likely to remain light as Japanese investors observe a national holiday.

Japanese Yen Firms Ahead of BOJ Meeting

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.29%, extending its recovery from a more than four-week low last week, as expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts diminished. Swaps are now pricing in an 86% probability of unchanged policy in September, supported by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter-than-expected July inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also recently highlighted early signs of modest growth in the private sector, describing it as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks underscored the central bank’s cautious approach and strengthened market expectations that any further easing is likely to be gradual. Looking ahead, investor attention is shifting to the forthcoming employment report and scheduled speeches by RBA officials, which could provide additional insight into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory and its outlook for the remainder of the year.

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