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The offshore yuan held its recent gains to around 7.16 per dollar on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level since early November last year, supported by improved sentiment after factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth. A private survey showed the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June from 48.3, beating expectations of 49.0.  The reading contrasted with the official PMI released Monday, which indicated a third straight month of contraction, though it showed slight improvement from prior months, signaling resilience among export-driven firms despite ongoing trade headwinds. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained under pressure amid growing bets on Fed rate cuts and trade uncertainties, providing additional support to the yuan. Looking ahead, anticipation is building around notable actions expected at key political meetings in China, particularly the upcoming July Politburo session, for potential stimulus signals, keeping markets attentive to further yuan interventions.

Offshore Yuan Holds Near 8-Month Peak

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.608 on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains and retreating slightly from multi-month highs. Investors turned their focus to trade uncertainty, monitoring the global impact of US tariff policies, as the 90-day tariff reprieve is set to expire next week. Limiting further losses was a weaker US dollar, pressured by concerns over the US fiscal outlook and growing bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts amid dovish signals from policymakers and ongoing political pressure. Meanwhile, private data showed that China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion, in contrast to official data indicating factory activity contracted for a third straight month. This eased some concerns about risks to New Zealand exports, given the countries’ close trade ties. Domestically, the Reserve Bank is expected to hold steady at its July 9 meeting, with swaps pricing in just a 23% chance of a 25bps cut to 3%.

Kiwi Dollar Dips from Multi-Month Highs

The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1% to around 3,448 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.3% to 10,430 on Tuesday, with mainland stocks lacking clear direction despite a surprise rebound in manufacturing activity. The latest Caixin survey showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly returned to expansion in June, supported by Beijing’s stepped-up efforts to stabilize growth amid higher US tariffs. On the trade front, Beijing announced on Friday that it had finalized a new agreement with Washington. Under the deal, China will review export applications for items subject to export control rules, while the US has agreed to roll back several restrictive measures targeting Chinese entities. Market performance was mixed across sectors. Notable gainers included North Industries (+3.6%) and Anhui Jianghuai (+3.2%), while major decliners included Cambricon Technologies (-6.1%) and Shenzhen Forms (-5.8%).

China Stocks Struggle for Direction Despite Strong PMI Data

The S&P Global Thailand Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.7 in June 2025 from 51.2 in May, marking the second consecutive month of growth and the strongest expansion since August 2024. Output growth accelerated to a near one-year high, supported by greater new work inflows, including from abroad. In response, goods producers raised their purchasing activity for the first time in four months, resulting in a second monthly rise in input inventories. However, stocks of finished goods fell slightly after two months of growth, as firms grew reluctant to hold additional inventory for sales. Employment levels also stalled, following two straight months of job creation, as business confidence softened. While manufacturers maintained an above-average level of optimism in June, it was the lowest recorded in just over a year as some firms became concerned with the outlook for growth. Regarding prices, input costs rose for the first time since January, leading to higher selling price inflation.

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