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The S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.4% to close at 29,400 on Tuesday as investors digested softer-than-expected inflation data ahead of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision tomorrow. Canada’s annual CPI rose to 1.9% in August from 1.7% in July—below the 2.0% consensus and marking the fifth consecutive month beneath the BoC’s 2% midpoint—while the trimmed-mean core CPI, the Bank’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, eased to 3.0% in August from 3.1% in July, in line with forecasts. Markets still expect the BoC to begin easing but have trimmed bets on the extent of rate cuts through the remainder of 2025. Heavyweight miners were among the biggest laggards, led by Wheaton Precious Metals down 2.4%, and rate-sensitive tech and financials also traded firmly in the red. Meanwhile, rising oil prices for a third session provided some offset from energy producers.

TSX Declines Ahead of BoC

US stocks pulled back slightly on Tuesday as investors booked profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated September policy meeting. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1%, the Dow Jones fell 125 points, and the Nasdaq closed slightly below the flatline. Technology leaders including Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Palantir retreated, while financial and utility stocks also weighed on the broader market. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, marking its first reduction since December, with markets closely watching Chair Powell’s comments for clues on future moves. Meanwhile, upbeat August retail sales data showed resilient consumer spending despite sticky inflation and a softening labor market. Investors also tracked US-China developments, with progress on trade and a new TikTok framework lifting sentiment and boosting shares of Oracle.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Retreat from Records

Sugar futures slipped below 15.9 cents per pound as the market faced pressure from expectations of abundant global supplies. Trading was subdued, reflecting cautious sentiment as participants assessed prospects for large harvests in key producing regions. India’s ample stocks ahead of the new season added to the bearish outlook, with exports expected to rise starting in October. Meanwhile, strong output projections in Brazil and favorable weather across Asia reinforced supply-side headwinds. Although demand has remained steady, it has been insufficient to counter the oversupply narrative, keeping futures under pressure.

Sugar Futures Under Pressure as Oversupply Weighs

Cotton futures rose above 66 cents per pound, their highest in three weeks, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The softer dollar boosted the competitiveness of US cotton in overseas markets, while a potential rate cut is seen as easing borrowing costs for farmers. Traders are largely betting on a 25-basis-point reduction, with confidence running high ahead of the Fed’s decision. The USDA reported that 52% of the US cotton crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down slightly from 54% the previous week. Meanwhile, the latest WASDE report showed no changes in US cotton consumption, exports, or ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, though declines in global inventories provided a mildly supportive backdrop.

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