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Malaysian palm oil futures jumped nearly 1% to around MYR 4,560 per tonne, reversing prior-session losses as trading resumed after a long weekend. Gains were supported by stronger rival oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges and firm export estimates. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments for October 1–20 rose 3.4% from the same period in September. Positive sentiment was also bolstered by U.S. President Trump signaling a potential “fair trade deal” with China’s Xi Jinping and White House expectations that the government shutdown could end this week. Offsetting some strength was high Malaysian stocks, with end-September inventories up 7.2% from August to 2.36 million tonnes, the highest in nearly two years. Meanwhile, India, the world's largest palm oil importer, reduced palm oil purchases by 16.3% in September, the lowestl evel since May, as refiners turned to cheaper soyoil.

Palm Oil Recovers as Markets Resume Activity

Copper futures climbed above $5 per pound on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high as easing US-China trade tensions boosted risk appetite. US President Donald Trump said he expects to reach a fair trade deal with China’s President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea later this month, while trade representatives from both nations are set to meet in Malaysia this week to defuse tensions. Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also supported the demand outlook. Meanwhile, strong Chinese industrial production data released Monday offset concerns over weaker third-quarter GDP growth and ongoing deflationary pressures. On the supply side, a series mining disruptions, led by the suspension of operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, continued to stoke worries about global supply shortages.

Copper Rises on Easing US-China Trade Tensions

Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell to around 4.12%, moving back toward a six-month low as expectations of imminent rate cuts outweighed optimism over the new US–Australia trade agreement. September’s jobless rate rose to its highest level since 2021, prompting markets to raise bets on an RBA rate cut to about a 70% chance of a 25 bps reduction, up from roughly 40% before the data release last week. Investors are now turning to upcoming economic data that could influence the RBA’s November policy decision, including flash PMI readings this week and the key Q3 CPI report next week. Meanwhile, risk appetite improved after a breakthrough between US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who signed a critical minerals pact aimed at reducing reliance on China and potentially channeling billions of dollars into local mining projects.

Aussie 10Y Yield Moves Back Toward 6-Month Low

Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister on Tuesday, following a coalition agreement between her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), according to Reuters. A close ally of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is widely expected to secure the parliamentary vote. She plans to appoint fellow Abe protégé Satsuki Katayama as finance minister, marking another milestone—Katayama would be the first woman to hold the role. Their rise signals a historic shift in Japan, where women still occupy fewer than 20% of parliamentary seats and remain underrepresented in senior corporate leadership.

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