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Argentina’s trade surplus shrank to USD 1.402 billion in August 2025, down from USD 1.875 billion a year earlier and the largest monthly surplus so far this year. Imports rose 32.4% year-on-year to USD 6.463 billion, driven by notable increases in consumer goods (+15.3%), passenger motor vehicles (+8.6%) and parts and accessories for capital goods (+19.7%), while other categories showed mixed dynamics. Exports rose 16.4% to USD 7.865 billion, led by gains in primary products (+35.7%) and agro-industrial manufactures (+18.1%), partly offset by a decline in industrial manufactures (-7.0%). For the year-to-date through August 2025, the trade surplus stood at USD 5.071 billion, down from USD 14.075 billion in the same period of 2024.

Argentina Trade Surplus Shrinks in August

Argentina's unemployment rate eased to 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025, down from the highest level since Q3 2021 of 7.9% in the previous period. Meanwhile, the employment rate increased to 44.5% from 44.4% in the prior quarter, while the labor force participation rate fell to 48.1% from 48.2%.

Argentina Jobless Rate Eases in Q2

Cotton futures were down near 65 cents per pound, pressured by a stronger US dollar and spillover weakness from the grain markets. A firmer dollar, up 0.6%, made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive to foreign buyers, adding to the pressure. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of upland cotton at 186,100 running bales for the week ended September 11, up 44% from the previous week, though exports fell 8% to 120,500 running bales. Market participants noted that while sales were better, shipments remained weak and below target. Harvest activity is also underway, with traders suggesting the crop may be larger than USDA projections, though demand is described as mediocre. Meanwhile, the latest USDA supply and demand estimates left US cotton consumption, exports, and ending stocks unchanged from the previous month.

Cotton Futures Weaken Amid Dollar Strength

Arabica coffee futures edged higher to just under $3.80 per pound, partially recovering from the steep plunge earlier in the week that was triggered by heavy fund long liquidation after key technical support levels were breached. The market had become technically overbought during its recent rally, which accelerated the pace of selling. Adding to the correction, reports of rainfall in Brazil’s coffee belt improved expectations for next year’s crop. At the same time, structural supply pressures remain in focus, as Brazil—the world’s top coffee producer and exporter—reported that its soluble coffee shipments to the United States fell nearly 60% in August from a year earlier, following Washington’s imposition of a 50% trade tariff, according to a September 15 industry note.

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