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Retail sales in Brazil declined by 0.2% from the previous month in May of 2025, extending the revised 0.3% drop from April. It marked the first back-to-back decline in retail turnover since the start of the year, reflecting fresh softness in domestic consumption as elevated interest rates weigh against increased government handouts that supported last year's private expenditure. Turnover was lower for fuels and lubricants (-1.7% vs -1.6% in April), books and stationery (-2% vs 1.4%), and other articles for personal use (-2.1% vs 0.7%). In turn, sales were higher for supermarkets and food retailers (0.4% vs -0.3%), furniture and electronics (2% vs 0.3%), and pharmaceutical goods (1.7% vs 0.3%). From the previous year, retail sales were 2.1% higher, slowing from the 5.3% increase in the previous month.

Brazil Retail Sales Contract for 2nd Month

US futures erased most early losses on Tuesday, as investors digested the latest trade developments. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures hovered near the flatline. Markets responded to news that President Trump had announced revised tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to reach trade agreements with the US. Reports also indicated that the US has proposed a deal to the EU that would retain a 10% baseline tariff, with exceptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits. Investors found some relief in the extended timeline for negotiations, as the new tariffs are not set to take effect until August 1st, allowing more time to reach agreements. On the corporate front, Tesla shares rose nearly 1% in premarket trading, rebounding after a 6.8% decline on Monday. Other megacap tech stocks were mostly higher ahead of the opening bell, including Nvidia (+0.8%), Amazon (+0.3%), Meta (+0.6%), Broadcom (+0.7%), and Alphabet (+0.5%).

US Futures Point to a Rebound

The current account surplus in Ireland narrowed to EUR 5.8 billion in Q1 2025, downwardly revised from a preliminary release of EUR 6.6 billion and sharply lower than the EUR 17.9 billion recorded a year earlier, marking the smallest surplus since Q4 2023. The services balance swung to a EUR 0.4 billion deficit from a EUR 14.9 billion surplus in the same quarter last year, while the primary income deficit widened significantly to EUR 67.0 billion from EUR 34.9 billion. In contrast, the goods surplus nearly doubled to EUR 74.2 billion from EUR 39.1 billion. The secondary income deficit narrowed slightly to EUR 1.0 billion from EUR 1.2 billion.

Ireland Current Account Narrows Sharply in Q1

Ireland’s economy grew by 7.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, falling short of the second estimate of 9.7%, but accelerating sharply from a revised 4.5% expansion in the previous quarter. Despite the downward revision, it marked the fastest pace of growth since Q1 2021, driven largely by a surge in exports as multinational firms front-loaded shipments ahead of new US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The expansion was concentrated in multinational-dominated sectors, with output from foreign-based companies rising 13.6%. The globalized industry sector jumped 16.5%, while growth in information and communication was modest at 0.5%. In contrast, the domestic economy grew by a more moderate 2.0%, supported by a 49.1% spike in capital investment. Personal consumption edged up just 0.3%, and government spending fell by 1.3%. Meanwhile, GNP declined by 7.2%, a steeper drop than the earlier estimate of 2.1%.

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