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Sugar futures slipped below 16 cents per pound, hitting the lowest since September 21, driven by expectations of higher global production. Prices have been falling since October 7, when Covrig Analytics projected a global sugar surplus of +4.1 MMT for the 2025/26 season. At the same time, BMI analysts said global production is expected to grow by 4% to 189.6 million tons in 2025/26, largely reflecting increased output from India, whereas consumption is projected to rise marginally by 0.2% to 179.1 million. Meanwhile, sugar production in the key Centre-South region of Brazil is expected to have increased by 7.7% year-on-year to 3.05 million tons in the second half of September. Sugarcane crushing is forecast to rise 3.3% to 40.12 million metric tons over a year ago.

Sugar Futures at Over 3-Week Low

Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.

Lumber Rises Amid Looming Tariffs

Corn decreased to 410.50 USd/BU, the lowest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Corn lost 2.9%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.66%.

Corn Hits 5-week Low

European stocks advanced on Monday, with the Stoxx 50 up 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.3%, supported by a rebound in mining shares after President Donald Trump said trade relations with China “will all be fine.” The Stoxx 600 Basic Materials Index rose 2.4%, with Fresnillo jumping 9.5%, Antofagasta 5.1%, Aurubis 3.7%, and Anglo American over 3%, as Trump’s comments eased fears of a steep tariff hike on Chinese goods. Semiconductor maker ASML climbed 3.2% after the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned firm, to safeguard chip supplies amid rising trade tensions. In banking, Lloyds rose nearly 1% after setting aside an additional £800 million for car finance mis-selling compensation, bringing its total provisions to £2 billion. AstraZeneca slipped 0.3% after agreeing to lower US drug prices in exchange for tariff relief. In France, newly reappointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu named Roland Lescure as finance minister ahead of new budget plans.

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