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Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.2% month-on-month in May 2025, following a marginally revised flat reading in the prior month but falling short of market consensus of a 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, retail sales grew 3.3%, easing from 3.8% in April and marking the softest pace in six months.

Australia Retail Sales Rise Less than Estimated

The seasonally adjusted number of total dwellings approved in Australia increased 3.2% month-over-month to 15,212 units in May 2025, compared to the market forecasts of a 4.8% rise, after a downwardly revised 4.1% decline in April, preliminary estimates showed.

Australia Building Permits Rise Less than Expected

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday he believes the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates by September, aligning with President Donald Trump's repeated calls for cuts. Speaking on Fox News, Bessent noted, "I think that the criteria is that tariffs were not inflationary. If they're going to follow that criteria, I think that they could do it sooner than then, but certainly by September." While expressing disagreement with the Fed’s reasoning, he added, "If you're following that criteria, sure, why not the fall?" The Fed's current policy rate stands at 4.25%–4.50%, and speculation has grown around a potential easing cycle amid evolving inflation and trade dynamics.

U.S. Treasury’s Bessent Expects Fed Rate Cut by September

Brent crude oil futures held around $67 per barrel on Wednesday, steady after gains in the previous session, as industry data showed an unexpected rise in US crude inventories. API data revealed a 0.68 million-barrel increase last week, breaking a four-week streak of declines and defying expectations for a 2.26 million-barrel drop. Investors are also treading cautiously ahead of the OPEC+’s output decision, with the group set to raise production by 411,000 bpd in August, bringing 2025’s total increase to 1.78 million bpd—over 1.5% of global demand. The move is seen as a penalty for overproducers and a bid by Saudi Arabia to regain market share from US shale and others. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Iran ceasefire, have lowered oil’s risk premium, while uncertainty over potential new US tariffs after the July 9 deadline continues to cloud the global outlook and weigh on prices.

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