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Gold prices pared gains to about $3,970 an ounce after Fed Chair Powell warned a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, knocking market odds for another 25 bps cut lower and sending the 10 year Treasury above 4%. That caution partially offset the Fed’s 25 bps reduction to a 3.75 to 4.00% target range and its decision to end balance sheet runoff in December, moves that trim real short rates and add liquidity that normally supports precious metals. Continued official buying by central banks and renewed ETF accumulation have tightened available metal in exchange and official channels, providing a firm bid under prices. Progress toward a US China trade framework has trimmed some safe haven demand but has not undone structural drivers for gold such as persistent macro uncertainty and concerns about currency debasement.

Gold Loses Momentum

The euro fell below $1.16, its weakest level since mid-October, pressured by a stronger dollar after the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. However, Chair Powell signaled that the central bank may not cut rates again this year. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged for a third consecutive meeting on October 30th, with no further policy moves anticipated in 2025. Policymakers remain cautious amid signs of economic resilience and moderating inflation. In the Eurozone, inflation edged up to 2.2% in September from 2.0% over the previous three months, while GDP is estimated to have grown 0.1% in the third quarter, matching the pace seen in the second quarter.

Euro Falls Below $1.16

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10bps to 4.06% after Fed Chairman Powell downplayed the certainty of more rate cuts this year. The Fed cut its rates by 25bps in its October meeting, as expected, and announced the end of its quantitative tightening. Still, yields across the curve rose after Powell's reluctance to signal more cuts limited the view that the Fed will continue prioritizing labor market softness over high inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet runoff will end at the start of December, rolling over the entirety of maturing Treasury securities and reinvesting its MBS assets into Treasury bills, aiming to temper recent stress in overnight funding markets. Rate futures continued to expect three additional rate cuts by July of next year. Earlier concerns of a slowing economy, the government shutdown, and bets of a steady balance sheet for the Fed drove the 10-year yield to drop to a one-year low of 3.95% on October 22nd.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield Rises Sharply

US stocks fell from records on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the central bank may hold rates unchanged in their next meeting. The Dow lost 150 points while the S&P 500 eased 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 was flat. The Fed cut its rates by 25bps with two members dissenting in opposing sides, and announced the end of its balance sheet runoff in December. Still, stocks and bonds fell sharply after Powell noted that a December rate cut is uncertain, suggesting that FOMC members are alert to higher inflation amid robust growth. Consumer defensive stocks and healthcare led the losses, but companies that announced earnings were mostly higher. Caterpillar, Verizon, CVS Health, nd Fiserv rose sharply after posting Q3 earnings. Also, Nvidia rose 3% and crossed the $5 trillion market capitalization threshold after President Trump suggested he may be open to allowing Blackwell chip exports to China. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will post results after the bell.

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最新ニュース

Gold Loses Momentum

Euro Falls Below $1.16

US 10 Year Treasury Yield Rises Sharply

US Stocks Turn Negative

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日本外債投資

日本外国人による株式投資