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Indonesia’s parliamentary budget committee on Thursday approved a fiscal deficit forecast of 2.68% of GDP for the 2026 government budget, higher than the initial proposal of 2.48% presented by President Prabowo Subianto in August. Committee Chairperson Said Abdullah stated that total government spending has been approved at IDR 3,842.7 trillion (USD 233 billion), which is IDR 56.2 trillion higher than the initial proposal. Meanwhile, the government revenue target remains unchanged at IDR 3,153.6 trillion. As a result, the budget financing target has been revised upward from IDR 638.8 trillion to IDR 689.1 trillion to accommodate the increased spending. The budget committee's decision is expected to be ratified in a full parliamentary vote at a later date.

Indonesia Plans to Raise Budget Deficit to 2.68% in FY 2026

The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.

BoE Likely to Maintain Rates

German 10-year Bund yields fell toward 2.66% on Thursday, the lowest level in a week, as markets digested the latest policy signals from central banks. The US Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year amid evidence of a cooling labor market, but struck a cautious tone on the path ahead. Fed Chair Jerome Powell framed the move as a risk-management cut, pushing back on expectations for aggressive easing and stressing that the central bank does not need to move quickly on rates. In the euro area, policymakers have also emphasized caution. ECB officials continue to flag risks from tariffs, sticky services inflation, elevated food prices, and fiscal policy uncertainty. The ECB held rates steady for a second straight meeting last week, reinforcing the view that its rate-cutting cycle may be nearing an end.

German Bund Yields Slip as Investors Weigh Fed Cut

Iron ore futures fell to around CNY 801 per ton on Thursday, giving back gains from the prior session amid persistent signs of weak demand in top consumer China. Data indicated that manufacturing and infrastructure investment continued to contract in August, while end-use steel demand dropped sharply in the third quarter, particularly from the property and construction sectors. Market participants also noted that steel mill margins remain under pressure, prompting production cuts in several regions. Still, upcoming restocking ahead of the National Day holiday is expected to lend some support to prices, alongside seasonal demand from infrastructure projects. On the supply side, China’s crude iron ore output rose 8.8% year-on-year in August to 81.63 million metric tons, while shipments from major supplier Brazil also increased in the third quarter, adding to global supply pressures.

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