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The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.

Australian Dollar Holds Near 8-Month High

Qatar’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.0 in June 2025, up from 50.8 in May, signaling the fastest growth in the non-energy private sector since March. The latest reading matches the highest level recorded so far in 2025, although it remains slightly below the long-run survey average of 52.2. Output continued to expand, while employment rose, with the pace of job creation reaching the joint-third highest on record. Employment growth was observed across all sectors, led by manufacturing. The rise in staffing levels was supported by a further increase in outstanding business, the sharpest since last October. Wage growth was also notable, recording the second-highest increase on record, just behind January. On the price front, selling prices declined for the eleventh consecutive month, with the rate of deflation the fastest since last November. Looking ahead, business sentiment moderated and remained below the long-run survey average since 2017.

Qatar Non-Oil Private Sector Growth at 3-Month High

Gold edged up to around $3,330 per ounce on Friday, heading for a weekly advance as concerns over the US fiscal deficit and lingering tariff uncertainty boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal. On Thursday, the House approved President Donald Trump’s massive package of tax and spending cuts, which is expected to add more than $3 trillion to the country’s deficit over the next decade. Meanwhile, Trump said he would begin sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the US—a clear shift from earlier pledges to negotiate individual deals. However, gold's upside was capped by strong US labor market data, which showed that firms added a more-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady. For the week, the precious metal is on track to post a gain of over 1%, ending two consecutive weeks of losses.

Gold Poised for Weekly Gain

The Japanese yen traded near 145 per dollar on Friday after falling nearly 1% in the previous session, weighed down by trade-related uncertainties despite Tokyo’s efforts to secure a deal with Washington ahead of next week’s deadline. US President Donald Trump announced plans to begin sending formal letters on trade tariffs as early as today, potentially signaling new tariff rates or extensions of existing deadlines. He has previously threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese goods to as much as 35%, citing Japan’s limited imports of American rice and automobiles. Adding to the yen’s weakness, the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected June jobs report, which eased recession fears and reduced expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On the domestic front, data showed that household spending in Japan rebounded more than anticipated in May, supported by government measures to stimulate consumption.

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