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Sugar futures traded around 14.5 cents per pound, reaching the lowest since December 2020 and extending the year-to-date decline to about 25%. Market fundamentals remain influenced by expectations of improved global supply, led by top producer Brazil. Unica’s latest report showed a rise in sugar output in the Center-South region for the 2025/26 harvest, while Datagro projected an increase in the 2026/27 harvest. The overall consensus forecasts Brazil’s sugar output at 42.28 million tons in 2026/27, up from 40.5 million tons in 2025/26. At the same time, booming corn ethanol production is reshaping Brazil’s biofuel market and putting downward pressure on sugar prices. With corn-based ethanol cheaper to produce than sugarcane ethanol, mills are increasingly diverting cane to sugar production, further boosting supply. Favorable harvest prospects in India and Thailand, following abundant monsoon rains, combined with the expansion of plantations, reinforce the scenario of ample supply.

Sugar Futures Hit 2020-Lows

The Fifth District Service Sector Survey showed flat activity in October 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index rose slightly to 4 from 1, while demand held steady at 4. Expectations for future revenues and demand eased but stayed in positive territory. The local business conditions index improved to -1 from -7, though the outlook remained subdued at -3. Employment was unchanged at 0, while the six-month outlook for hiring rose to 14 from 11. The wages index held at 17, with firms continuing to expect wage increases. Price growth accelerated moderately for inputs and slightly for outputs, while firms anticipate slower cost growth and slightly stronger price gains over the next year.

5th District Services Stagnates in October

The FTSE 100 climbed more than 0.5% to a new record high on Tuesday, supported by strong gains in banks, miners, and defence stocks. HSBC led the rally with a rise of over 4% after posting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its profitability outlook. Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems also advanced, up more than 2% and 1% respectively, as demand for aerospace and defence stocks remained firm. Among miners, Anglo American gained over 2% after reaffirming its annual copper production target and reporting progress on plans to separate its De Beers diamond division. Glencore, Fresnillo, Endeavour, and Antofagasta also gained 1%-1.5%. Airtel Africa topped the index, soaring more than 13% after a sharp increase in first-half earnings. A weaker pound added further support, boosting exporter-heavy stocks. Meanwhile, fresh data from the BRC showed UK food bills falling at the fastest pace in nearly five years, reinforcing expectations of upcoming Bank of England rate cuts.

FTSE 100 Rises to Record High

The Dallas Fed's general business activity index dropped 3.8 points from the previous month to -9.4 in October of 2025, reflecting the sharpest decline in activity since May. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, fell by 4 points to -6.4. The deteriorating trend for business drove firms to shed their employment levels for a second month (-5.8 vs -3.6) and slow their wages and benefits (1.7 vs 11.9). In the meantime, input prices rose at a softer pace despite remaining sharply higher (23 vs 24.4), driving selling charges to regain traction (4.6 vs 1.6). Looking ahead, the company outlook index deteriorated to 10 from -2.6 in the earlier month.

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