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The Australian dollar inched down to $0.667 ahead of Thursday's session from the 11-month high of $0.67 touched earlier in the week after the Fed cut its rates by 25bps, but the greenback refrained from depreciating as projections of strong inflation prevented sharper bets of loosening by the FOMC. Domestically, the jobs report is expected to show 20K–25K new positions with unemployment steady at 4.2%, a key input for the RBA’s policy path. Markets now assign minimal odds to a September cut, with November easing bets trimmed to 70% on the back of solid recent data. On the geopolitical front, the US and China, Australia's top trading partners, reached a deal to place TikTok under US ownership, with final approval expected in a Friday call between Presidents Trump and Xi.

Australian Dollar Eases from 11-Month High

The Japanese yen traded around 146.5 per dollar ahead of Thursday's session, near its strongest almost two months after the Fed cut its rates and signaled further monetary easing for this year. Domestically, forex inflows lacked a boost from goods trade as exports fell 0.1% in August, less than expected but still the fourth consecutive monthly decline, led by a 13.8% drop in shipments to the US. Imports contracted 5.2%, moderating from July’s 7.4% slide yet surpassing the 4.1% decline forecast by analysts. On monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5% on Friday as policymakers weigh domestic and external risks, including tariffs. Still, steady inflation maintained lingering bets that the BoJ could still tighten policy this year.

Japanese Yen Hovers Near 2-Month High

The Ibovespa jumped 1.2% to trade above 145,500 on Wednesday after the Fed cut US interest rates by 25 bps, bringing them to 4.0–4.25%, in line with expectations. New projections showed most Fed officials foresee at least two more cuts this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s central bank is expected to hold the Selic at 15%, its highest in nearly two decades, with policymakers signaling rates will remain steady for an extended period. On the corporate front, banks rose (Itaú +1.6%, Bradesco +2.5%), retailers outperformed (Magazine Luiza +5.7%, Casas Bahia +13%), Petrobras gained 0.4%, while Vale slipped 0.3%.

Brazil Stock Market Rises on Fed Rate Cut

The euro traded around $1.18, slightly below the four-year highs reached earlier in the week, as the dollar firmed following the Fed’s policy decision. The Fed cut the funds rate by 25 bps, as expected, and signaled an additional 50 bps of reductions by year-end. However, Chair Powell emphasized that the move was a ‘risk management’ cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged for a second consecutive meeting last week, suggesting its rate-cutting cycle may be over. Policymakers continued to stress caution: Executive board member Isabel Schnabel urged policymakers to “keep a steady hand,” citing risks from tariffs, services inflation, food prices, and fiscal policy. Slovak central bank governor Peter Kazimir echoed the warning, saying it would be “a mistake” to downplay these risks. Inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.0% in August 2025, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 2.1%.

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