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オーストラリアウエストパック消費者信頼変動

中国住宅価格指数前年比

中国固定資産投資（年初来）前年同期比

US stock futures edged lower on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of major bank earnings and a closely watched inflation report. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are set to report quarterly results, potentially offering fresh insights into the health of the financial sector. Attention is also focused on the June consumer price index, which could shed light on the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The data is seen as a critical input for shaping expectations around future interest rate moves. Geopolitical tensions added to the uncertainty after President Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia unless a peace agreement with Ukraine is reached within 50 days. On Monday, Wall Street posted modest gains, with the Dow rising 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.27%. Seven of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, led by communication services, real estate, and financials.

US Futures Dip Ahead of Key Earnings and Inflation Data

UK retail sales grew by 2.7% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in June 2025, a sharp acceleration from May’s 0.6% increase and well above market forecasts of just 0.2%. Warmer weather and seasonal sporting events such as Wimbledon boosted foot traffic on the high street, driving strong demand for items like fans and sportswear. Food sales rose sharply by 4.1%, largely fueled by ongoing price inflation, while non-food sales climbed 2.2% as consumers responded to summer deals. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, noted: “Retail sales heated up in June, with both food and non-food performing well.” Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail and Leisure at KPMG, added: “Home appliances and homeware purchases contributed to the growth, as new homeowners and those refreshing their spaces took advantage of seasonal promotions both online and in-store.”

UK Retail Sales Growth Exceeds Expectations in June

President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to 1%, arguing it would reduce federal borrowing costs and boost economic growth. “We need a 1% rate. The Fed is killing growth,” he said on Monday. The federal funds rate currently stands at 5.25–5.50%, where the Fed has held it to control inflation and prevent economic overheating. Dropping rates to 1% would represent the most aggressive monetary easing since the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump’s call comes as federal debt servicing costs climb toward historic highs. While a lower rate could ease short-term interest payments on the national debt, economists warn it could destabilize the economy and rekindle inflation. Reuters noted the move might offer temporary relief but risk long-term financial instability.

Trump Pressures Fed for Deep Rate Cut

President Donald Trump warned on Monday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if a peace deal with Ukraine isn’t reached within 50 days. “We are going to be doing very severe tariffs if you don't have a deal in 50 days, perhaps 100%,” he said during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. These secondary tariffs would penalize any country trading with Russia, allowing the U.S. to impose steep duties on imports from those nations. While U.S. trade with Russia dropped to $3.5 billion in 2024, indirect trade routes remain significant. Trump’s proposed 100% rate is notably lower than a Senate-backed bipartisan bill, the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, which seeks a 500% tariff on Russian imports and similar secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, gas, uranium, or petroleum. A Senate vote could happen later this month, according to Majority Leader John Thune. Key U.S. partners potentially affected include China, India, South Korea, and Turkey.

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