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オーストラリアRBAコノリーのスピーチ

Argentina’s trade surplus shrank to USD 800 million in October 2025, down from USD 912 million a year earlier. Imports rose 16.9% year-on-year to USD 7,154 million, driven by notable increases in intermediate goods (5.7%), consumer goods (48.8%), passenger motor vehicles (69.2%) and capital goods (20%). Meanwhile, exports rose 13.1% to USD 7,954 million, led by gains in primary products (63.8%) and industrial manufactures also expanding (8.1%), while agro-industrial manufactures (-3.5%) contracted. For the year-to-date through October 2025, the trade surplus stood at USD 6,846 million, down from USD 15,969 million in the same period of 2024.

Argentina Trade Surplus Narrows in October

The Australian dollar traded around $0.645, its weakest in three months, as some strength in the US dollar offset the impact of a hawkish RBA. Minutes from the FOMC showed multiple members were against more cuts this year, supporting the greenback against G10 currencies. Likewise, the RBA’s November minutes showed the central bank could hold rates steady for an extended period if data continues to surprise on the upside. Data showing steady Q3 wage growth, alongside last week’s upbeat jobs report and a sticky inflation reading, reinforced expectations that the easing cycle is over. Swaps imply just a 50% probability of a final RBA cut in May next year. Meanwhile, the Aussie, often used as a proxy for risk due to Australia’s reliance on commodity exports linked to global growth, remained under pressure after global stocks fell on concerns about lofty artificial intelligence valuations and slowing imports of raw materials from China.

Australian Dollar Weakens to 3-Month Low

The euro slipped to $1.15, its lowest level in roughly two weeks, weighed down by a stronger dollar as traders reduced expectations for a 25bps Fed rate cut in December. The shift in sentiment followed the cancellation of the October employment report and FOMC minutes showing policymakers were divided over the need for further easing. In contrast, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows. The central bank left rates on hold in October for a third consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, the European Commission raised its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3%, up from 0.9% in its spring projections, citing a surge in exports to the United States as firms increased inventories ahead of Trump-era tariffs. Growth is projected to ease to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4%, before edging up to 1.4% in 2027.

Euro Falls to $1.15

The yen extended its decline toward 157 per USD on Wednesday, its weakest level since mid-January, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan’s new government was closely monitoring financial markets. According to the Finance Ministry, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and key economic ministers agreed to track market developments with a “strong sense of urgency". The yen has come under heavy pressure this week amid expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new administration will unveil a large fiscal stimulus package supported by low interest rates. Reports indicate the spending plan could exceed JPY 20 trillion, funded by an additional budget of roughly JPY 17 trillion.

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